Economic Growth
Dear Client, I will be holding a webcast next Friday, September 24th at 10:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM BST, 4:00 PM CEST, 11:00 PM HKT) with BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan where we will debate the outlook for EM stocks. As this…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on less efficacious…
Highlights Germany’s election on September 26 is more of an opportunity than a risk for global investors. Coalition formation will prolong uncertainty but the key takeaway is that early or aggressive fiscal tightening is off the table for Germany … and…
Feature Chart 1Chinese Offshore Stocks Tumbled Amid Regulatory Crackdowns
Chinese Offshore Stocks Tumbled Amid Regulatory Crackdowns…
Highlights A decline in the marginal propensity to spend out of both income and wealth over the past few decades generated a flood of excess savings. Facing a chronic shortfall of aggregate demand, central banks had no choice but to cut interest rates.…
Highlights Regulatory changes affecting Chinese platform companies are structural – rather than transitory – in nature. These companies might become quasi-SOEs and could be used by the government to achieve its national and geopolitical objectives.…
Highlights Our willingness to spend money depends on which ‘mental account’ it occupies. Once windfall income enters our ‘savings mental account’, we will not spend it. Hence, the pandemic’s windfall income receipts will have no sustained impact on…
Highlights China’s credit tightening may have surpassed maximum strength. Monetary policy will remain accommodative and fiscal policy will become more supportive in the rest of the year. However, overall regulatory oversight is still restrictive,…
Highlights Commodity markets will face growing supply challenges over the next decade as the US and China prepare for war, if only to deter war. Chinese President Xi Jinping's push for greater self-reliance at home and supply chain security abroad is…
When defining maximum employment, many investors focus on the state of the labor market that prevailed as of February 2020. However, the US labor market was beyond maximum employment levels at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the Fed is…