The German IFO’s Business Climate Index softened for the third consecutive month in September, falling to 98.8 from 99.6. The weakness was led by the Current Assessment number which lost 1-point versus expectations of a minor…
Manufacturing and service flash PMIs for September were weaker than expected. In the US, both service and manufacturing PMIs fell below expectations, bringing down the composite PMI by 0.9 points to 54.5. This dynamic was even…
The Turkish central bank surprised investors with a 100-basis point rate cut on Thursday, bringing the one-week repo rate down to 18%. The decision comes despite rising inflation. Headline CPI has been steadily climbing since…
As expected, the FOMC did not make any changes to its policy rate or pace of asset purchases at its meeting on Wednesday. However, the Fed sent a strong signal that tapering is on the horizon. The statement indicated that “if…
Chinese residential building starts and sales have been contracting since April and July, respectively. Similarly, the level of aggregate building construction activity appears to be rolling over. The Evergrande debacle presents…
Highlights We cannot predict how China will manage Evergrande precisely but we have a high conviction that it will do whatever it takes to prevent contagion across the property sector. However, China’s stimulus tools are losing…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service upgraded its rating on EM equities and currencies to strong overweight After lagging the global indices, EM stocks are set to outperform during the remainder of this year and…
Dear Client, I will be holding a webcast next Friday, September 24th at 10:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM BST, 4:00 PM CEST, 11:00 PM HKT) with BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan where we will debate the outlook…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…