Economic Growth

Highlights As US and China’s grand strategies collide, expect major and minor geopolitical earthquakes whose epicenter will now lie in South Asia and the Indian Ocean basin. Another tectonic change will drive South Asia’s emergence as a new geopolitical…

Having worked as an economist for close to 50 years, the current strange and uncertain environment seems a good time to look back and consider some of the lessons I have learned. An additional reason for writing this rather personal report is that, after 34…

Dear Client, Owing to BCA’s Annual Investment Conference next week, there will be no report on Wednesday, October 20. We will return to our regular publication schedule on Wednesday, October 27. Please note that there will be a China Outlook panel…

Highlights Electricity shortages in China are largely due to excessive power demand rather than a matter of shrinking electricity production. Chinese electricity consumption has been supercharged by the export sector’s booming demand for electricity.…

Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal stimulus could be…

Highlights The global fight against the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to show progress in the month of September, but not without cost. Growth in services activity slowed meaningfully, which has likely delayed the return to potential output in the…