This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

In Section I, we note that the Fed’s new interest rate projections show that US monetary policy is set to rise soon into restrictive territory even relative to what we consider to be the neutral rate of interest, and to a level that…

Special Report

Please note I will be hosting a live webcast on September 29, 2022 at 9:00 AM HKT for the APAC region. I will discuss the global/China/EM macro outlooks and financial market implications. For clients in the Americas and EMEA, we had a…

Executive Summary Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues  In this report, we discuss our move last week to shift to a below-benchmark overall global duration stance in more detail. Our strongest conviction view on…

Special Report

Executive Summary We hold to our view that households are in better shape than widely perceived, nourished by a robust labor market and a formidable supply of pandemic savings. We do not believe that the equity bear market will…

Special Report

Executive Summary Turkey is staring into an abyss: economic crisis that will morph into political crisis in the June 2023 election cycle. President Erdoğan will pursue populist economic policies and foreign policy adventurism to try…

Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…

Executive Summary Assessing the future scenarios discounted in asset prices is always a challenge, but investors need a consensus baseline so they can formulate their own investment strategy decisions. The conversations we had at BCA…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of The Year  Home prices in the US are set to decline, almost certainly in real terms and…

Special Report

Highlights The risk of a US recession has increased sharply over the past several months. We have not yet concluded that a recession over the coming year is inevitable, but substantial (further) supply-side and pandemic-related…