Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
In Section I, we note that while recent inflation developments point to some supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation, they also point to potentially stickier inflation over the coming several months. The inflation, monetary…
We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…
Banks face many challenges from a slower economy and tighter financial conditions, which offset benefits from rising rates and higher net interest income. It is likely that things will get worse, a sentiment supported by many banking…
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
In this report, we assess that sterling likely bottomed below 1.04. We expect volatility in the currency to remain in place but are buyers below current levels. On balance, there is a tug of war between irresponsible fiscal policy…
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent…
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…