Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
We think the banking turmoil set off by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure will prove to be less than it’s been cracked up to be and that it will not derail the near-term equity we expect.
Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
CCP officials are discussing policy options for breaking out of a deepening liquidity trap. Anything policymakers come up with will be additive to existing spending and to the multi-trillion-dollar fiscal-stimulus packages being…
It is too early to know whether the drop in bond yields will offset the drag on growth from tighter lending standards. But if it does, the net effect on equity valuations could be positive. This is enough to justify a modest tactical…