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Economic Growth

Essentials
The Signal From Dr. Copper
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Brazil: A Bull Market Or A Rollercoaster?

In this report, we explore Brazil’s inflation and monetary policy outlook, the Lula administration’s back-and-forth between pragmatism and populism, and how these factors will affect Brazilian financial markets going forward. All in all, we believe Brazilian risk assets will be in a trading range relative to their EM peers in the next 12 months.

Juan Egana, Arthur Budaghyan
3 years ago
GeoMacro
Third Quarter Geopolitical Outlook 2023

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.

Matt Gertken
3 years ago
Essentials
China's 2H23 Policy Playbook
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy team, China’s fiscal support will be limited due to political and economic factors. China has heavily relied on government expenditure support to sustain its economic growth in recent years. However, there…
3 years ago
Essentials
Chinese Credit Growth: Less Than Meets The Eye
China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in June. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.22 trillion – above expectations of CNY 3.10 trillion and exceeding CNY 1.56 trillion in the prior month. Similarly, the CNY 3.05 trillion worth of new…
3 years ago
Essentials
UK Jobs Market Faces Lingering Inflationary Pressures
Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…
3 years ago
Essentials
Deflationary Pressures In China
China’s CPI and PPI inflation updates indicate that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy in June. Producer prices declined at a faster pace than in the prior month, falling by -5.4% y/y following a -4.6% y/y decrease in May, and…
3 years ago
China
Essentials
Eurozone Investors Are (More) Pessimistic
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
3 years ago
Essentials
Are Investors Long Or Short The US Dollar?
Investors’ positioning in the USD is not homogenous: they are short some currencies but long others versus the greenback. Market commentators often refer to the US dollar. They implicitly mean the US currency is moving in the same direction against all (or…
3 years ago
GeoMacro
Third Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.

Matt Gertken
3 years ago

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics