Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand…
In Section I, we review the three possible economic scenarios over the coming year, and underscore that the “soft landing” scenario remains improbable. A “no landing” scenario could occur, but it would ultimately lead back to the…
A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?
If the recession begins this year, it is unlikely to be mild, because inflation will not have fallen by enough to allow the Fed to cut rates aggressively. In contrast, if the recession starts in 2024 or later, when inflation is…
Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.