East Europe & Central Asia
Image
For several years Erdogan has attempted to distract the populace from the country’s economic slide by adopting an aggressive foreign policy, particularly toward the West. The immediate cause is…
Highlights So What? Maintain a cautious stance on Turkish currency and risk assets. Why? Following the AKP’s defeat in Istanbul, Erdogan has doubled down on unorthodox economic policies. Improvements in the current account balance are temporary.…
Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to investors and President…
Highlights So What? Economic stimulus will encourage key nations to pursue their self-interest – keeping geopolitical risk high. Why? The U.S. is still experiencing extraordinary strategic tensions with China and Iran … simultaneously. The Trump-Xi…
Russia: A Fiscal And Monetary Fortress Underpins A Low-Beta Status…
Dear Client, Tomorrow we will publish a debate piece on China shedding more light on the ongoing discussions at BCA on this topic. This report will articulate the conceptual and analytical differences between my colleague, Peter Berezin, and I relating to…
Analysis on central Europe and Pakistan is published below. Highlights There are several reasons why Chinese authorities will likely allow the yuan to depreciate 6-8% from current levels in the coming months. RMB depreciation will weigh not only on…
Turkey’s Foreign Debt Bubble: The Worst Is Not Yet Behind Us (Part 2…
Turkey’s Foreign Debt Bubble: The Worst Is Not Yet Behind Us (Part 1…
Highlights In Indonesia, investors are ignoring the weakness in global growth, which is an important driver of the country’s financial markets. The Indonesian currency, equities and local currency bonds all remain vulnerable. We continue to recommend…