Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the logic of pursuing one’s interest against US interests in the final hours of the election mostly applies to states that will suffer a significant loss to…
Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, US policy will have an impact on China’s willingness to adopt a preemptively hawkish foreign policy. But the US is in the middle of a chaotic election that…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, there is a strange quirk about Walz and the state of Nebraska that could have national consequences in the black swan scenario of an electoral college tie. Walz…
Harris picked Walz to patch up her weak side in the electorally vital Midwest. But the US election will continue to weigh on risk appetite, stocks, and high-beta assets because the odds of a single-party sweep are at least 50%,…
GeoMacro team partners with BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy to examine political reforms in Argentina. Our colleague Juan Egaña argues that the time is not right to go long Argentinian assets and that Buenos Aires must avoid the…