Special Report

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven,…

Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…

President Trump’s big beautiful bill will pass but faces near-term hurdles and will not tighten the government’s belt. It will combine with renewed tariff implementation to generate near-term risk for both the bond and stock market.…

Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget…

Special Report

France’s political turmoil is far from over, and fiscal fears are growing. This is not a bond-friendly environment. In contrast, it is a good time to upgrade French equities. As the 2027 presidential race is about to begin in earnest…

President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against…

Special Report

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend…

Special Report

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

Special Report

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US…

Special Report

Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and…