Strategy Insight

One Big Beautiful Mess

26 Jun 2025

by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist

President Trump’s big beautiful bill will pass but faces near-term hurdles and will not tighten the government’s belt. It will combine with renewed tariff implementation to generate near-term risk for both the bond and stock market. The Iran crisis fizzled, saving Trump from a major oil shock that could have derailed his second term.

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BCA Research | US Political Strategy

This strategy is unlike any other financial market research on US politics and policy because we use the geopolitical method, not Beltway conventional wisdom, to analyze risks and opportunities for major equity sectors.