According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the…
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership.…
President Joe Biden’s average approval rating fell to 39.9% on December 3, while his disapproval rating rose to 55.4%. This polling is extremely dangerous for the president. He lags former President Donald Trump by 2% in…
Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.
According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, coalition politics will prevent radical policy changes in the Netherlands. The Dutch elections saw a shift to new and opposition parties as the team…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan…
