Developed Countries
Have global equity markets reached a riot point? Is the Fed going on hold a sufficient condition for stocks to stage a cyclical rally? If not, what would be needed to produce such a rally? Does the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion foreshadow a rise in the US money supply? This report provides answers to all these questions.
UK inflation was hotter-than-anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation accelerated from 10.1% y/y to 10.4% y/y – surprising consensus estimates it would slow to 9.9% y/y. The monthly rate increased to 1.1% m/m, following a 0.6% m/m decline in January…
The Bank of Canada’s summary of the discussions by Governing Council members ahead of its March 8 decision to stand pat produced a dovish signal on Wednesday. Although policymakers highlighted that “the economy remained in excess demand” and “the labor market…
The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and made some important changes to its official forward interest rate guidance. Modifications to the policy statement signal that the Fed’s tightening cycle is close to its peak. Specifically, “the…
Some quick takes from today’s FOMC meeting.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment sent a negative signal for Eurozone risk assets. The expectations index for Germany tumbled from 28.1 to 13.0 in March – slightly below expectations of 15 and marking an end to the five-month streak of improving morale.…
Commodity prices contain important information about the health of the global economy. For example, copper prices typically rise during periods of strong industrial activity, signaling that global growth is firm. Meanwhile, an increase in gold prices could be…
Bulletproof Bet: French Aerospace & Defense
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Unsurprisingly, financials are the worst performing equity sector since the fallout of SVB and Signature bank, with the S&P 500 Banks index down 17% since March 8 (see Market Focus). A question facing investors is whether bank stocks are now attractive…
Given that banks are the cause of the recent market turmoil, it is unsurprising that financials are the worst performing sector since the start of the tumult earlier this month. Yet, the equity weakness has been broad-based across most US and global equity…