This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two…
Our Bank Credit Analyst strategists argue that a US fiscal crisis should be treated as a base case over the next decade, not a tail risk. The ballooning US budget deficit reflects higher interest rates, demographic pressures, and the…
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two…
The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75…
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in…