Deleveraging
Fade Chinese Banks’ Outperformance…
Structural Drivers Of Real Interest Rates…
Loans To China’s Real Economy Contracts For First Time In Two Decades…
Mexico: The Future Remains Bright…
Qatar's Big Bet…
Introducing our Special Series to assess where Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain stand today. Stay tuned for more.
Is It Time To Buy Argentinian Sovereign Bonds…
China: Diagnosing Malaise…
Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. Authorities will be slow to introduce large stimulus. Hence, China-related financial markets are set to fall further.
Cyclically-speaking, the risk of global indebtedness does not appear to be acute. There are several pockets of sizeable private sector debt risk, and it is possible that the next US/global recession will cause a more pronounced economic downturn in some of…