Highlights Current activity indicators are now losing momentum, or outright rolling over. This confirms that European (and global) growth is now entering a down-oscillation. Why? It is the rate of decline in the bond yield that has…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all…
Highlights We are searching for evidence of an imminent end to this business cycle, … : Investors who recognize the onset of the recession in a timely fashion will have a leg up on the competition all the way through the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward tradeoff remains squarely to the downside and we are turning cyclically (3-12 month horizon) cautious on the prospects of the broad equity market. The Presidential cycle, UBER’s IPO…
Highlights Inverted Curves & Recessions: While an inverted U.S. Treasury curve has been a reliable early indicator of past U.S. recessions, the current inversion appears “too soon” relative to the evolution of U.S.…
Highlights Monetary policy remains accommodative in Japan, but will tighten on a relative basis if the Bank Of Japan (BoJ) stands pat. The BoJ’s margin of error is non-trivial, since a small external shock could well tip the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward equity market tradeoff is to the downside and we remain tactically cautious. The trade war re-escalation risks pushing out the global growth recovery to early-2020 and has shaken our…