The coronavirus has served as a catalyst for a bear market in the SPX, the first since the GFC. We have been bearish up until this past Monday but given that we do not expect a GFC repeat we recommended investors with higher…
HighlightsPortfolio Strategy“There is blood in the streets”. Investors with higher risk tolerance should be buying into this weakness and start to deploy long-term oriented capital. S&P 500 futures fell to 2394 which is a whopping 1000…
Highlights The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and a recession appears to be inevitable, … : The longest bull market in S&P 500 history succumbed last week to the Saudi-Russia oil war, the relentless drumbeat of spreading…
Highlights Bear markets occur in phases, and their narrative can mutate. What began as a selloff caused by the coronavirus outbreak could well mutate into an oil crash-led selloff, and then mutate again into a selloff due to policy…
Highlights Duration: It is too soon to call the bottom in bond yields. To help make that call we will be looking for when: daily new COVID-19 infections reach zero, global growth indicators improve, US economic indicators worsen,…
Feature “Bayesian: …statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events…based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem to revise…
Highlights The near-term path for the DXY remains up. Uncertainty about the trajectory of global growth is a potent tailwind. Central bank ammunition will eventually put a floor under global growth, but it remains a powerless weapon…
We published a report titled “Markets Too Complacent About The Coronavirus” before US stocks opened for trading on Friday, February 21st. In that piece, we argued that equities were at risk of swooning as investors came to…
Feature Everyone’s asset-allocation plans for the year have been disrupted by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Our view is that, while the virus is serious and will hurt the Chinese and global economy in the short term,…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s monetary easing, the resilient US dollar, weak operating industry metrics and a looming margin squeeze all signal that an underweight stance is still warranted in the S&P chemicals index.…