Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and his populist ANO party won the Czech parliamentary elections, securing 40% of the seats, short of an outright majority. The outcome was broadly in line with expectations but was viewed…
Domestic bond yields in the three major central European markets have recently inched up more than their German counterparts. This is despite economic growth staying quite weak in CE3. What should investors make of it (Chart 1)? Our…
The disinflation process is over in Poland and Hungary. Only the Czech Republic will see its core inflation meet its central bank target this year. The reason is much tighter labor market dynamics in the first two. Investors should…
A market-cap weighted index of CE3 economies (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) returned a whopping 64% in common currency terms since its 2022 low. Polish and Hungarian equities led the rally, advancing by a respective 86% and 78% in…
Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…
Executive Summary Poland: Wages Are Surging Hungary is exhibiting classic signs of an overheating economy –as rising inflation coincides with very strong domestic demand. Yet, authorities are still pursuing very…
Executive Summary Polish Central Bank Is Behind Inflation Curve; Czech One is Getting Ahead Curve Amid the current geopolitical crisis, Poland is more vulnerable than other Central European countries due to its extensive…
The Czech National Bank surprised markets with a massive 125 basis point rate hike on Thursday – significantly above the anticipated 75 bp increase. The central bank’s sharp move – which follows a 75 bp hike in…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the Czech koruna will outperform the Hungarian forint. Conditions for central bank rate hike cycles are in place in Hungary and the Czech Republic. Yet…