Czech Republic
Mounting Headwinds For CE3 FX…
Domestic bond yields in the three major central European markets have recently inched up more than their German counterparts. This is despite economic growth staying quite weak in CE3. What should investors make of it (Chart 1)?
Chart 1…
The disinflation process is over in Poland and Hungary. Only the Czech Republic will see its core inflation meet its central bank target this year. The reason is much tighter labor market dynamics in the first two. Investors should continue to short a basket of CE3 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.
Greater Upside For Polish Equities Versus Other CE3 Bourses…
Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish / receive Czech 10-year swap rates.
Executive Summary Poland: Wages Are Surging
Poland: Wages Are Surging…
Executive Summary Polish Central Bank Is Behind Inflation Curve; Czech One is Getting Ahead Curve
Polish Central Bank Is Behind Inflation Curve; Czech One is Getting Ahead Curve…
Czech Central Bank’s Hawkish Stance Positive For CZK…
Hungary: The “Inflation Genie” Is Out Of The Bottle…