Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The US equity market is in the midst of an earnings contraction driven by slowing sales growth – a manifestation of the weakening economic demand and loss of corporate pricing power that accompany disinflation. The telecommunications…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
Macroeconomic and business conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for Tech as the bottoming of demand is in sight. Yet, we don’t believe that now is an attractive entry point - the good news is fully priced in, and…
The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…
In Section I, we explain why we do not see the deceleration in US inflation, the likely near-term pickup in European growth, and the end of China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy as signs of a sustainable rebound in global economic…
Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading…
In Section I, we note that the global growth outlook has modestly deteriorated over the past month, despite an improving 12-month outlook for Chinese domestic demand in response to the imminent end of the nation’s “dynamic zero-COVID…