Currencies

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.