Currencies

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.