The recent breakdown in cross-asset correlations highlights mounting risk premia on US assets. Last week, the long-standing correlations underpinning our understanding of global markets violently broke down. The Treasury market…
Dips in European assets remain long-term buying opportunities, even though short-term risks abound. A notable feature of the recent selloff is that US safe havens failed to rally. In a global growth scare, both the US dollar and…
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus,…
We believe Beijing views these US trade actions as nothing short of a declaration of economic war, not just a trade dispute. The US-China confrontation is set to escalate from here. Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to…
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/…
Remain constructive on Argentine assets as recent market moves are a tactical pullback, not a loss of confidence. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has widened, prompting concerns that markets are questioning…