Correlations

Highlights While we are bearish on the US dollar in the long run, the greenback is primed for a rebound in the near term. Consistently, commodities prices will relapse and EM currencies will depreciate versus the US dollar. Global growth stocks will…

Highlights In a world with low expected returns from various asset classes and still-elevated target returns among largely underfunded pension funds, asset allocators may have to consider the use of leverage to meet liability requirements. Canadian…

Highlights The underperformance of value versus growth has been a reason behind the dollar bull market rather than a consequence of it. The rationale is that the catalyst for any sector to outperform is return on capital rather than the cost of capital.…

Highlights Global Bond Yields: The growing divide between falling negative real bond yields and rising inflation expectations in the US and other major developed economies may be a sign of investors pricing in slower long-run potential economic growth in…

Highlights The underperformance of value versus growth has been a reason behind the dollar bull market rather than a consequence of it. The rationale is that the catalyst for any sector to outperform is return on capital rather than the cost of capital…

Rising Short-Term Risks…

The Fed’s efforts to jawbone the US dollar are paying off as investors have been shedding their greenback exposure over the past several weeks. In recent research,1 we have also been highlighting that although Powell would never admit it, the Fed is trying to…

  In a webcast this Friday I will be joined by our Chief US Equity Strategist, Anastasios Avgeriou to debate ‘Sectors To Own, And Sectors To Avoid In The Post-Covid World’. Today’s report preludes five of the points that we will debate. Please join us…

In lieu of the next weekly report I will be presenting the quarterly webcast ‘Leaving The Euro Would Be MAD, But Mad Things Can Happen’ on Thursday 14 May at 10.00AM EDT (3.00PM BST, 4.00PM CEST, 10.00PM HKT). As usual, the webcast will take a TED talk…

Highlights Extreme global economic uncertainty has pushed demand for USD higher, and forced investors to liquidate gold holdings to raise cash for margin calls and to provide precautionary balances. Gold endured a succession of down moves that elected…