The equity bear case is obvious. Prices are approaching overhead resistance and face fundamental headwinds.
Clients should forgive us for being too gloomy at the start of the year -- it is difficult to be optimistic in the dead of a Montreal winter. However, with springtime comes the reflation trade, born on the wings of massive Chinese…
Gold seems to be leading global share prices. Gold prices have rolled over since March 10. Hence, odds are that the U.S. dollar is about to bottom, and that global and EM stocks, as well as commodities prices, are about to relapse.…
A dovish Fed bought the bounce a bit more time, but there is little incentive to add portfolio risk. Buy consumer finance, especially vs. banks, and expect communications equipment outperformance.
If the EM rally is sustained, the Fed will once again become resolute in its commitment to hiking interest rates. This in turn will spur another relapse in EM risk assets. Chinese policymakers are attempting to juggle contradictory…
The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.
The agreement to freeze oil production should reduce tail risks, even if it does not improve overall corporate sector health and profits.