Highlights Dear Client, This week's BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy features our 2017 Outlook for the Gold market. We will address the other precious metals markets early in the New Year. We model gold as a currency.…
Highlights This week we elaborate on the issues that we believe will be critical to investors going into 2017: Feature 1. Is China beginning to export inflation? Not yet. As long as the RMB depreciates faster than the rate of domestic…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy If the Fed is about to begin interest rate re-normalization in earnest, then investors should heed the message from historic sector performance during tightening cycles. The tech sector remains…
Highlights The Chinese authorities have progressively tightened capital account control regulations to staunch capital outflows, which will likely slow the drawdown of the country's official reserves in the near term. Rising…
Highlights U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar will rise further. Consistently, EM currencies and local bonds will continue selling off. There is meaningful downside in EM exchange rates. We recommend short positions in the following…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The rise in Treasury yields is approaching a threshold that has often caused equity market indigestion. Stay focused on current monetary conditions rather than fiscal unknowns. The bear market in lodging…
Highlights Commodity prices and the dollar can occasionally rise together. The 1999-2001 and the 2005 experiences suggest a supply shock is required. If commodities were to rally alongside a strengthening dollar in 2017, this would be…
Highlights The basic conditions that the U.S. Treasury utilizes to evaluate its major trade partners do not justify labeling China as a currency manipulator. Even if China were officially declared as a manipulator, the remedial…