Special Report

As promised in early September, this is the third installment of our four part Indicators series. In this Special Report, we follow a similar script to Part II but instead of sectors, we now cover the S&P 500, non-financial equities,…

Highlights Rising U.S. bond yields will continue to put downward pressure on global stocks in the near term, but will not trigger an equity bear market until rates reach restrictive territory. We are still at least 12 months away from…

Please note that a Special Alert titled "Brazil: A Regime Shift?" discussing investment implications of the weekend elections was published on Tuesday. Highlights The combination of rising U.S. bond yields and slumping…

Highlights Duration: Last week's bond market rout was driven by strong U.S. data. Global growth (ex. U.S.) continues to weaken. Weak foreign growth that migrates stateside via a stronger dollar remains the biggest risk to our below…

We have long argued that the U.S. economy can withstand a tightening of up to 100-125bps (using the 10-year UST yield) in a short time span. Empirical evidence supports our view, and with regard to stocks, what is most important is the…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, we are sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Juan Correa on the topic of carry trades. In this report, Juan builds on our previous work on the subject. He analyses the role of interest rates,…

Special Report

Highlights The Global Golden Rule (GGR): The gap between market expectations of global central bank policy rates and realized interest rate outcomes is a reliable predictor of government bond returns. Thus, "getting the…

Special Report

Highlights Chart 1Corporate Health: Improving Everywhere, ##br##Down In The U.S.  Dollar bull markets are often accompanied by positive returns for the S&P 500. While a strong dollar hurts the earnings outlook for the S&…

Special Report

Highlights Chart 1Corporate Health: Improving Everywhere, ##br##Down In The U.S.  Dollar bull markets are often accompanied by positive returns for the S&P 500. While a strong dollar hurts the earnings outlook for the S&…

Highlights Subdued long-term inflation expectations and central bank bond purchases have suppressed the term premium. This is set to change, as quantitative easing turns into quantitative tightening and shrinking output gaps around…