Highlights The path of least resistance for the DXY remains up. The internal dynamics of financial markets remain constructive for the DXY. We explore more key indicators to complement the analysis in our February 28 report. Our…
Highlights An analysis on Colombia is available below. If EM share prices hold at current levels, a major rally will likely unfold. If they are unable to hold, a substantial breakdown will likely ensue. The direction of EM US dollar…
A dangerous break up in historical correlations marked this year’s trading, as both the VIX and the SPX became positively correlated. Worrisomely, since 2018 every time such a breakdown occurred, the broad market…
Highlights Provided that the coronavirus outbreak is contained, global growth should accelerate over the course of 2020. Stocks usually rise when the economy is strengthening. But could this time be different? We explore five…
Highlights Duration: Despite recent setbacks, global growth looks set to improve and policy uncertainty set to ease during the next couple of months. Both will conspire to push bond yields higher. Investors should maintain below-…
Highlights Remain short the DXY index. The key risk to this view is a US-led rebound in global growth, or a pickup in US inflation that tilts the Federal Reserve to a relatively more hawkish bias. Stay long a petrocurrency basket. The…
Highlights Stock markets begin 2020 with fragile short-term fractal structures, which means there is a two in three chance of a tactical reversal. The bond yield impulse is now a strong headwind, which reliably predicts that bond…
The once-reliable negative correlation between gold and the USD was indefinitely suspended beginning in 4Q18 by the pervasive economic uncertainty we identified last week as the culprit holding back global oil demand growth via a super-…
Pervasive global policy uncertainty continues to fuel USD safe-haven demand. This keeps the Fed’s broad trade-weighted dollar index for goods close to record highs, which continues to stifle oil demand. At present, we do not expect…