Corporate Profits
Empire Fed Beats, But Signal Too Noisy To Shift Positioning…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
Imminent monetary and fiscal easing, along with resilient earnings growth, support a constructive outlook for equities. However, in the near term, significant tail risks persist. We recommend strengthening downside protection by lowering portfolio beta.
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s IT companies, driving the latter's profitability down.
In its budget plans last week, the Indian fiscal authorities announced major tax cuts for households – the equivalent of about US$12 billion, 0.3% of GDP – to boost consumer spending. Soon thereafter, the central bank cut its policy rates by 25 bps – for the first time in five years. Can these…
US Slowdown Story Continues…
Fade China's Industrial Profits…
Mid-Cap Banks Dodge Another CRE Bullet…
Consumer Credit Increases The Most In Three Months…
Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.