Highlights The BCA earnings model shows that S&P 500 EPS growth is peaking and should decelerate through 2018. Synchronous global growth remains in place in 2017 and will persist into 2018, providing a tailwind for U.S. growth,…
Highlights Powell's nomination will not change the Fed's gradual rate hike path, but open Board seats are a worry. Household debt growth is slower than usual, but auto debt levels are a concern. Stocks will beat bonds and oil…
Highlights Risk assets are responding well to better data and rising rates. Q3 EPS results beating lowered expectations, but growth earnings will peak soon. The conditions are in place for robust capital spending. Financial assets…
Highlights The macro environment remains positive for risk assets. Nonetheless, the shadow of the '87 stock market crash is a reminder that major market corrections can occur even when the earnings and economic growth backdrop is…
Highlights Storms set a low bar for Q3 EPS. BCA's Beige Book Monitor near cycle highs despite storms. Investors should fade the Q3 housing weakness. Latest Survey Of Consumer Finances highlights student loan debt issue.…
Highlights It's ok to ignore the September jobs report. Is the small cap comeback sustainable? Assessing the threat to the consumer from higher rates and oil prices. The ISM is over 60, now what? Feature Risk assets…
Highlights Either China's growth will slump soon, capping budding inflationary pressures, or policymakers will have to hike interest rates meaningfully to tackle inflation. If the PBoC drags its feet and does not hike interest…
Highlights Oil prices have hit our target, but more upside is likely. President Trump's tax proposal has arrived and the Trump trades have responded. Surging M&A activity is not a sign of a market top. The supports are all…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Industrials stocks are on the verge of a breakout on the back of firming earnings fundamentals. Lift to an above benchmark allocation. Reviving global end-demand is a boon to U.S. machinery equities. Act…
Highlights Duration: As long as inflation shows signs of stabilizing during the next couple of months the Fed will lift rates again in December. Stay at below-benchmark duration and remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries.…