Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising lumber prices, melting interest rates and profit-augmenting industry productivity gains all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish the S&P home improvement retail (HIR) index. Poor…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Business sector selling price inflation is sinking like a stone following the bond market’s melting inflation expectations, at a time when wage inflation continues to expand smartly. There are good…

Analysis on Thailand is available below. Feature Last week we were on the road meeting with some of our U.S. clients. This week’s report presents some of the key topics of our discussions in a Q&A format. Question: You have…

Highlights Fed: The large divergence between Treasury yields and risk assets means that the Fed will almost certainly cut rates during the next few months. The only question is whether a large sell-off in risk assets will be required…

Highlights Global financial markets are currently dealing with a fresh round of uncertainty related to U.S.-China trade tensions. Yet while equities and government bond yields have fallen in response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs and…

Analysis on the Philippines and Argentina are below. Highlights Analysis on the Philippines starts on page 9 and Argentina on page 12. Relative return on capital for non-financial corporations points to continuous EM equity…

Highlights The recent dovish shift in tone from central banks around the world is here to stay this year, providing support for global growth. As a result, stock prices will benefit from a combination of easy policy and rebounding…

Special Report

Highlights Corporate Debt In Theory: Conventional theory holds that high levels of corporate debt pose a risk to the economy because they make the corporate sector more vulnerable to exogenous economic shocks. Corporate Debt In Practice…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Yield curve dynamics, higher oil prices, recovering balance sheets, and compelling valuations and technicals all suggest that energy stocks will burst higher in the coming months.  Melting medical…

Highlights The first quarter is in the books, … : Risk may have been out in the fourth quarter, but it is squarely back in fashion so far this year, with equities and high yield posting gaudy first-quarter returns. … and…