The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling…
Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term…
We refresh our 2023 plan of attack to reflect the latest data and several rounds of discussions with clients in virtual and face-to-face meetings. We continue to expect a meaningful first-half rally in the S&P 500, despite…
The US equity market is in the midst of an earnings contraction driven by slowing sales growth – a manifestation of the weakening economic demand and loss of corporate pricing power that accompany disinflation. The telecommunications…
The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a…
The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…
Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading…
Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…