The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling…

The tempo of China’s and the US’s military operations is picking up sharply. The risk of a sudden, perhaps unintended, escalation of military conflict, therefore, is rising in the South China Sea. So is the risk of another shooting…

Special Report

Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside in the coming months on a narrowing global supply-demand deficit. We expect that copper prices will plummet by 15-20% from the current level. However, the lingering structural supply…

Special Report

CCP policy stimulus will boost growth in China this year. Copper prices breached $4.00/lb on COMEX this week, as expected. We continue to forecast $4.50/lb this year, with upside price risk dominating. Iron ore also will rise, but…

Copper markets will remain tight on the back of growing physical deficits and pressure on capex. Policy-rate increases by central banks, uncertainty over re-opening in China and its fiscal-stimulus plans in the short run restrain…

Executive Summary EU Metal Industry Under Threat  Russia’s threat to cut off all remaining exports of natural gas to the EU via Ukraine will further imperil the bloc’s struggling metals industry, particularly…

Executive Summary China Copper Consumption Failed To Revive Post-Pandemic  A greater-than-expected contraction in manufacturing and construction in China – evidenced by the latest PMI and home sales data – will…

Special Report

Executive Summary   Copper prices still face substantial downside (15-20% from current levels). The global copper market is shifting from a deficit to a considerable surplus over the next 12 to 18 months. Global copper supply…

Executive Summary Caught In Risk-Off Selling  Weak Chinese and European economies are suppressing copper demand and helping to temper prices in a market that remains fundamentally tight. Weaker US GDP growth could put the…

Next Thursday May 26, we will hold the BCA Debate – High Inflation: Here To Stay,Or Soon In The Rear-View Mirror? – a Webcast in which I will debate my colleague, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist, Bob Ryan on the…