Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights Investors are worrying too much about the things that caused the global financial crisis, and not enough about those that could cause the next downturn. Despite the recent patch of soft data, the U.S. housing market is in…
The above chart shows our U.S. Bond Strategy service’s Base Effects Indicator, a mechanical measure that looks at rates of change during the prior few months to see where the year-over-year inflation rate is headed. The…
Dear Client, I will be visiting clients next week. Instead of our Weekly Report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleagues Matt Gertken and Ray Park. The report addresses the North Korean situation and argues that…
Highlights China's industrial sector will continue decelerating, while consumer spending is so far booming. The world economy in general and EM in particular are exposed much more to China's industrial sector than to its…
Highlights BCA's call is that the robust labor market will boost wages and incomes, and insulate the consumer from rising energy costs and interest rates. Residential investment will add to GDP growth this year and support housing…