Highlights There is a high risk of a global demand shortfall in 2022. This is because consumer demand for services will remain well below its pre-pandemic trend… …while the recent booming demand for goods is crashing…
Highlights Bank of Canada: Rising inflation, high capacity utilization, and monetary policy constraints will force the Bank of Canada to taper further and move up the timing of its first rate hike to H1/2022. Stay underweight Canadian…
Highlights Inflation in the US and many other countries is likely to follow a “two steps up, one step down” trajectory of higher highs and higher lows over the remainder of the decade. Goods inflation will ease in 2022,…
Next week is the BCA Annual Conference, at which I will debate Professor Nouriel Roubini on ‘The Outlook For Cryptocurrencies’. I will make the passioned case for cryptos, and Nouriel will make the passioned case against. I…
The August US Personal Income and Outlays report was broadly in line with expectations. Personal income rose 0.2% m/m following the prior month’s 1.1% m/m increase. Meanwhile, real personal spending grew 0.4% m/m after a…
Highlights The global fight against the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to show progress in the month of September, but not without cost. Growth in services activity slowed meaningfully, which has likely delayed the return to…
US and Euro Area measures of consumer confidence are diverging. According to the Conference Board survey, US consumer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month to a seven-month low of 109.3 in September. The nearly six-…
Highlights Economy – We find the leading arguments for why households’ excess savings won’t be spent to be wanting: US households do not commonly demonstrate the detached foresight that Ricardian equivalence takes as…
US housing market data surprised to the upside in August. Housing starts increased 3.9% m/m versus expectations of a 1.0% rebound following July’s 6.2% contraction. Similarly, building permits accelerated to 6.0% m/m from 2.3% –…
Highlights Economy – The inflation question is unresolved, and it will remain that way for the rest of the year: August’s CPI report had something for everyone and ensured the debate will continue. Doves could celebrate the…