Special Report

Global investors should sell Chinese assets on strength this year and diversify into other emerging markets. American investors should limit China exposure. Short CNY-USD.

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

Special Report

China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next…

Special Report

This digest version of our Special Report contains its conclusion along with a high-level review of how we reached it. It is structured identically to the full document, but with less than half the word count, so a reader can swiftly…

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…

Special Report

Workers have a cyclical wind at their backs as labor demand exceeds supply, but a wage-price spiral is no more than a remote possibility. The structural backdrop has turned significantly against them since the last bout of high…

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

In Section I, we note that the global growth outlook has modestly deteriorated over the past month, despite an improving 12-month outlook for Chinese domestic demand in response to the imminent end of the nation’s “dynamic zero-COVID…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper.