Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.
June retail sales beat across the board, but inflation and a slowing trend reinforce our defensive stance. Headline and core retail sales rose 0.6% m/m, while the control group climbed 0.5%. Spending on food services and drinking…
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s…
Global inflation risks remain subdued, reinforcing a long duration stance across select DM government bonds. Our price pressure index shows moderate input price inflation outside the US and stable delivery times globally.…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside,…
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.
The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the…
This month, we focus on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Our assessment in the Alpha report is that there won’t be any remaining alpha to harvest by shorting duration. The team that coined the “Human Steepener” moniker for…