Elevated market complacency contrasts with high geopolitical risk as oil disruption remains a key threat. Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend after the US struck Iran’s nuclear capabilities, yet markets have reacted…
Geopolitical risks and fragile margins reinforce a defensive allocation stance, as oil shocks and high US equity valuations pose growing downside risks. At this month’s Views Meeting, our strategists discussed the potential fallout…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport…
The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating, raising the odds of a major oil supply shock and reinforcing the case for cash, US equity overweight, and tactical energy exposure. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief…
Our Commodity strategists see a breakdown of historical commodity correlations. The US dollar now shows a positive correlation with commodities, particularly energy, and a weaker dollar will no longer guarantee upside for commodity…
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
Oil, copper, and gold futures curves have experienced abnormal changes in the past few months, but a bearish global outlook will steepen contango structures across all three. Oil’s curve structure has flipped from backwardation…
The gold-to-oil price ratio seems tactically overextended, but global macro drivers suggest it will rise further. The gold bull run is still relatively young and not yet stretched compared to rallies from the past 50…