Commodities & Energy Sector

Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation, which we held remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr. X: As always, I welcome the opportunity to discuss the economic and financial outlook with you. The past year has been truly ghastly with the wretched COVID-19 disease wreaking extraordinary economic and social havoc. I take comfort from the hope that a vaccine will allow a gradual return to more normal conditions in 2021, but my concerns about the longer-run outlook have increased. The extreme monetary and fiscal responses to the virus-related economic collapse may have been necessary but will leave most developed economies much more vulnerable down the road. Risk assets have been propped up by easy money, but I fear that simply means lower returns in the future. Ms. X: The social impact of the virus has weighed heavily on me, making me quite depressed about the outlook. I can only hope that my normal optimism will return when a vaccine ends the pandemic. Of course, I am happy that equities have done much better than might have been expected in the past year, but I share my father’s concerns about long-term returns. I look forward to discussing ideas about how to position our portfolio. BCA: The past year has indeed been grim on many levels. The economic disruption has been severe, but the social toll of the virus has been even more damaging for many people in terms of being forcibly isolated from family and friends. It is very encouraging that vaccines should start to become widely available early in the year, but the return to normality likely will take time. During the northern hemisphere winter months, the pandemic may even get worse before it gets better. As far as the longer run outlook is concerned, the policy response to the crisis will indeed have consequences. Government debt has soared in most countries and this raises the issue of how this will be dealt with in the years ahead. Meanwhile, central bank support to the markets cannot continue indefinitely, which raises the prospect of severe withdrawal pains at some point. Furthermore, both fiscal and monetary trends pose the question of whether higher inflation is inevitable. It is therefore unlikely that voters will reward politicians who impose upon them the painful deflationary pressures. Markets are forward looking and one could take the view that the strength of equity markets in the past eight months has reflected optimism about the economic outlook. However, a more plausible explanation is that hyper-stimulative monetary policies have been the main driving force behind asset prices. If that is the case, then there is some cause for optimism because central banks have made it clear that they will not be tightening policy for quite some time. While you are both right to be concerned about low returns over the long run, risk asset prices seem likely to rise further in the coming year with equities continuing to outperform bonds. We can get into that in more details later.  Ms. X: Before we get into our discussion of the outlook, let’s briefly review your predictions from last year. BCA: That will be a humbling experience given that we never built a global pandemic into our forecasts! A year ago, our key conclusions were that: Global equities would enter the end game of their nearly 11-year bull market. Stocks were expensive, but bonds were even more so. As a result, if global growth could recover and the US could avoid a recession in 2020, earnings would not weaken significantly and stocks would again outperform bonds. Low rates reflected the end of the debt super cycle in the advanced economies. However, the debt super cycle was still alive in EM, particularly in China. The global economic slowdown that began more than 18 months prior to our meeting started when China tried to limit debt growth. If Beijing continued to push for more deleveraging, global growth would continue to suffer as the EM debt super cycle would end. Nonetheless, we expected China to try to mitigate domestic deflationary pressures in 2020. As a result, a small wave of Chinese reflation, coupled with the substantial easing in global monetary and liquidity conditions should have promoted a worldwide reacceleration in economic activity. Policy uncertainty would recede in 2020. Domestic constraints would force China and the US toward a trade détente. The risk of a no-deal Brexit was seen as marginal, and President Trump was still the favorite in the election. A decline in policy risk would foster a global economic rebound. That being said, some pockets of geopolitical risk remained, such as in the Middle East. Global central banks were highly unlikely to remove the punch bowl. Not only would it take some time before global deflationary forces receded, monetary authorities in the G-10 would want to avoid the Japanification of their economies. As a result, they were already announcing that they would allow inflation to overshoot their 2% target for a period of time. This would ultimately raise the need for higher rates in 2021, which would push the global economy into recession in late 2021 or early 2022. These dynamics were key to our categorization of 2020 as the end game. US growth would reaccelerate. The US consumer was in good shape thanks to healthy balance sheets as well as robust employment and wage growth prospects. Meanwhile, corporate profits and capex should have benefited from a decline in global uncertainty and a pickup in global economic activity. China would continue to stimulate its economy but would not do so as aggressively as it did over the past 10 years. Consequently, EM growth would also bottom but was unlikely to boom. Europe and Japan would reaccelerate in 2020. Bond yields would continue to grind higher in 2020. However, Treasury yields were unlikely to break above the 2.25% to 2.5% range until much later in the year. Inflationary pressures would not resurface quickly, so the Fed was unlikely to signal its intention to raise interest rates until late 2020 or later. European bonds were particularly unattractive. Corporate bonds were a mixed offering. Investment grade credit was unattractive owing to low option-adjusted spreads and high duration, especially as corporate health was deteriorating. Agency mortgage-backed securities and high-yield bonds offered better risk-adjusted value. Global stocks would enjoy their last-gasp rally in 2020. As global growth would recover, we favored the more cyclical sectors and regions which also happened to offer the best value. US stocks were the least attractive bourse; they were very expensive and loaded with defensive and tech-related exposure, two groups that would suffer from higher bond yields. We were neutral on EM equities. We recommended that investors pare exposure to equities only after inflation breakevens had moved back into their 2.3% to 2.5% normal range and the Fed fund rates had moved closer to neutral. We anticipated this to be a risk in 2021. The dollar was likely to decline because it is a countercyclical currency. Balance of payment dynamics and valuation considerations were also becoming headwinds. The pro-cyclical European currencies and the euro were expected to be the main beneficiaries of any dollar depreciation. We anticipated oil and gold to have upside. Crude would benefit from both supply-side discipline and a recovery in oil demand on the back of the improving growth outlook. Gold would strengthen as global central banks would limit the upside to real rates by allowing inflation to run a bit hot. A weaker dollar would boost both commodities. We expected a balanced portfolio to generate an average return of only 2.4% a year in real terms over the next decade. This compares to average returns of around 6.5% a year between 1982 and 2018. Obviously, our forecasts were undone by the defining event of the year: the pandemic. Nonetheless, in February we warned that asset prices did not embed enough of a risk premium to protect investors against the threat that the pandemic could terminate the global business cycle. The more deflationary risk we confront today, the more inflation we will face in the future. At the beginning of the second quarter, we were quick to recommend buying stocks back, so we participated in the rally that followed. We erred in preferring foreign to US equities, which turned out to be key winners of the pandemic thanks to their heavy exposure to growth stocks (Table 1). The economic downturn meant that bond yields fell rather than rose. They have remained exceedingly low in response to exceptionally accommodative monetary conditions, a surge in savings and deeply negative output gaps. We were right to favor peripheral bonds, which benefited from the ECB’s purchases and the European Commission’s Recovery Fund (Table 1). Finally, the market rewarded our negative stance on the dollar and our bullish view on gold. However, we were offside on oil, where the continued impact of the pandemic on global transport has left crude prices at very depressed levels. Table 12020 Asset Market Returns OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World A Brave New World Mr. X: You mentioned that you prefer stocks over bonds for 2021. I can accept this view; while stocks are expensive, their valuations are less demanding than that of bonds. Moreover, I agree that policymakers around the world are very afraid of the deflationary consequences of removing accommodation too early but they cannot ease monetary policy much from here. This creates an asymmetric payoff in favor of stocks versus safe-haven securities. However, my favorite asset class for the near future is cash. Granted, I enjoy the luxury of not having to track a benchmark and my core focus is capital preservation. With both stocks and bonds richly valued, I see no margin of safety and I would rather stand on the sidelines. The longer-term outlook is particularly concerning. The extraordinary accommodation implemented this year was unavoidable, but its future consequences worry me greatly. Real rates have never been so low and we are leaving unprecedented public debt loads to our children and grandchildren. Moreover, I fear further adoption of populist policies because inequalities have risen in the wake of the crisis. The worst affected families stand at the bottom of the income distribution while people like me have benefited from inflated asset prices. Therefore, I am inclined to believe that we will suffer a large inflation shock in the coming decade. The global broad money supply has exploded and it is very unlikely that central banks will normalize interest rates in due time because of the burden created by gigantic public debt loads and the spectrum of further populism. My worries extend beyond these obvious concerns. Last year I was already anxious about the incredibly large stock of global debt with negative yields. This situation has only worsened since. Moreover, the various programs implemented by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other major monetary authorities to provide liquidity directly to the private sector at the apex of the crisis have prevented the purge of unhealthy firms necessary under a capitalist system. Instead of creative destruction, zombification has become the norm. Thus, I fear that more capital is misallocated than at any point in the past 10 years. Putting it all together, my expectations are that real returns will be poor for years to come, if not outright negative. I therefore believe that gold should stand at the core of my family’s portfolio. Ms. X: I share many of my father’s concerns. It is difficult to see how monetary and fiscal authorities will normalize policy. Hence, I agree that we will face the painful legacy of a large debt overhang and poor long-term returns. Moreover, the poor demographic profile in most advanced economies as well as China bodes ill for trend growth. I do see opportunities within this bleak picture. Healthcare stocks should benefit from an aging of the world’s population and tech equities will remain a source of disruption, innovation and profit growth in the coming decades. Thus, an equity portfolio built around these themes should generate positive real returns. In light of the positive vaccine news, next year will offer investors with both rapidly expanding profits and low discount rates and it is hard to imagine equities performing poorly. BCA: Clearly, we have many things to discuss. We should start with the COVID-19 pandemic. The news that vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are around 95% effective is very encouraging. The Oxford/AstraZeneca announcement also is a source of optimism, even if the trial results have been less clear-cut. Moreover, other vaccines are currently in the mass-testing stage. By next winter, approximately 1.5 billion people globally should have been vaccinated. These positives hide many issues. First, transporting the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (particularly the one produced by Pfizer, which needs to be kept at -70°C) will be challenging, especially for poorer countries. Second, the mRNA technology used in these vaccines is new and its long-term impact is unknown. Hence, many people will be reluctant to take this shot, especially as the confidence in the safety of vaccines has declined among the general public. Only 58% of Americans said they would probably take a COVID-19 vaccine, a number that will rise once the vaccine is demonstrated but which still highlights the challenge (Chart 1). Third, the virus could mutate and render the current generation of vaccines ineffective. The recent news of such mutations in mink farms in Denmark is worrisome, especially as the new strain of the virus has already jumped back into the human population. Chart 1The Vaccine Blues OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World Our base case is that the vaccines will allow a progressive reopening of the economic sectors currently still under lockdown. They will lead to a further improvement in employment, consumer and business sentiment, and aggregate demand. With less fear of getting infected, consumers will return to shops, restaurants, hotels, etc. This will have a very beneficial impact on capex and profit growth. It will result in higher stock prices, especially for value stocks, cyclical stocks, as well as higher yields and commodity prices. Despite this optimistic base case, investors must have contingencies ready. The three aforementioned risks around the vaccines suggest that additional waves of infections cannot be entirely ruled out and that lockdowns may continue in 2021. Thus, we could still face periods of downward pressure on activity, yields, and value stocks. For now it remains prudent not to tilt portfolios fully toward a post-COVID bias. In contrast to the past 40 years, a 60/40 portfolio will fare poorly once we account for higher inflation. Even if the vaccines enjoy widespread adoption, near-term threats to economic activity remain. The realization that the end of the pandemic is close may prompt a temporary period where households hunker down and behave in a very conservative fashion. After all, few consumers will want to contract the virus just before a vaccine becomes available. Moreover, the sight of the end of the lockdowns reduces the fiscal authorities’ urgency to provide additional support to the population and small businesses. These two dynamics could prompt a deep contraction in spending in the first quarter of 2021, which would hurt stock prices. Mr. X: Thank you. While these near-term dynamics are crucial, the emergence of the vaccine increases the importance of discussing the long-term implications of the extreme policy conducted in recent months. BCA: The long-term implications of aggressive policy stimulus tie into the evolution of the debt super cycle. As a share of US GDP, total private debt has spiked near a record high and total nonfinancial debt has surged to new all-time highs (Chart 2). This reflects two phenomena. First, the denominator of the ratio – GDP – has collapsed. Second, total nonfinancial debt also highlights the rapid increase in government deficits. Hence, climbing leverage was a consequence of the necessary dissaving by the public sector to alleviate the deflationary forces created by the crisis. This problem is repeated around the world. As Chart 3 demonstrates, nonfinancial debt levels across the G10 are rapidly rising. Moreover, debt loads in emerging markets are also extremely elevated. Chart 2COVID-19 Boosted Debt Ratios COVID-19 Boosted Debt Ratios COVID-19 Boosted Debt Ratios Chart 3Elevated Debt Everywhere Elevated Debt Everywhere Elevated Debt Everywhere   Going forward, either rising savings or faster nominal GDP growth will cause the debt ratios to decline. The first option is difficult; increasing savings is deflationary and it could worsen the debt arithmetic by keeping real interest rates stubbornly high. Moreover, it is politically unpopular, especially when the public sector has been the borrower. Here, we echo the words of Keynes from his 1923 Tract On Monetary Reform: "The progressive deterioration in the value of money through history is not an accident, and has had behind it two great driving forces – the impecuniosity of governments and the superior political influence of the debtor class (…). No state or government is likely to decree its own bankruptcy or its own downfall so long as the instrument of taxation by currency depreciation through the creation of legal tender (money) still lies at hand… The active and working elements (i.e., debtors) in no community, ancient or modern will consent to hand over to the rentier or bond holding class more than a certain proportion of the fruits of their work. When the piled up debt demands more than a tolerable proportion, relief has usually been sought in (…) repudiation (…) and currency depreciation." Nominal rates cannot fall further, while large inequalities and social immobility are fomenting populism (Chart 4). Moreover, the recent COVID-19 crisis has deepened the angst of the general population and its dissatisfaction with policymakers. It is therefore unlikely that voters will reward politicians who impose upon them the painful deflationary pressures that result from the high savings necessary to reduce public sector debt loads. Even a Republican-controlled US Senate will have to allow larger deficits than usual in today’s climate. Chart 4Inequalities And Immobility Are The Roots Of Populism OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World Instead, we expect fiscal and monetary policy to work in tandem to lift inflation and deflate the global debt load. The rising popularity of Modern Monetary Theory fits within this paradigm shift. MMT posits that as long as governments issue debt in their own currency, central bank money printing can finance the deficit. The only constraint on policymakers becomes the level of inflation that society tolerates. Society is likely to tolerate a rise in inflation. MMT is unpalatable to savers, but the majority of citizens are debtors, not lenders. In an MMT framework where the median voter is a borrower, the tolerance for inflation will likely be high, which will hurt the value of financial assets. Moreover, the corporate sector is unlikely to fight strongly against large deficits funded by central banks. If we accept the Kalecki Equation of Profits, which can be simplified as: Profits = Investment – Household Savings – Government Savings – Foreign Savings + Dividends then business profits will suffer if deleveraging takes hold, whether in the public or private sector. Instead, MMT-like policies, which will keep savings at low levels and prevent deleveraging, offers a way to keep nominal profits afloat. For businesses too, the path of least resistance steers toward higher inflation. Different countries will vary in their ability to pass MMT-like policies, but the policy shift toward inflationary policies is clear. The specter of rising populism should result in heavier regulation, at least in the EU and the US under the incoming Biden administration. Regulation further hurts the growth rate of the supply-side of the economy. It limits competition, it protects workers and it increases the cost of doing business. We expect additional fiscal stimulus will come through in the coming months. Beyond political forces, the demographic deterioration highlighted by Ms. X points in the same direction. An aging population means that the dependency ratio (the number of dependents per worker) is increasing. Moreover, analysis by the UN underscores that in old age, consumption increases due to rising spending on healthcare (Chart 5). We are therefore likely to witness a slowing expansion of the supply side relative to the demand side of the economy. By definition, this process is inflationary. In the second half of the decade, inflation could average as high as between 3% and 5%. Keep in mind that inflation is not a linear process. Once it starts to rise, it becomes very hard to control. In this regard, the experience of the late 1960s is extremely instructive. Through the 1960s boom, inflation was well behaved, contained between 0.7% and 1.2%. Then it started to rise in 1966, and quickly hit 6.1% by 1970 (Chart 6). While the average-inflation target the Fed recently adopted is well intentioned, in an environment where governments are unlikely to curtail deficits as fast as the private sector cuts its savings, it could easily unleash a long-term inflationary trend. Chart 5Aging Doesn't Spell Less Spending Aging Doesn't Spell Less Spensing Aging Doesn't Spell Less Spensing Chart 6Inflation Is Stable Until It Is Not Inflation Is Stable Until It Is Not Inflation Is Stable Until It Is Not   Ms. X: Why won’t technological advancements such as AI and automation cause low inflation to prevail for the rest of the decade? Chart 7Low Productivity Low Productivity Low Productivity BCA: The great paradox of this crisis is that the more deflationary risk we confront today, the more inflation we will face in the future. This relationship is the consequence of financial repression. Debt arithmetic will only stay manageable as long as real interest rates remain low; consequently, central banks will only be able to increase interest rates if nominal growth rises significantly from its low average of the past decade. Both workforce and productivity growth are low, thus quicker inflation is the only solution. As you hinted, technology is a risk to our long-term inflation view. However, technology has most often been a deflationary force. The key question is whether we are experiencing a greater impact than normal on productivity from current technological developments. So far, the answer seems to be no. Even if the statistical estimation methods for GDP overestimate inflation and thus underestimate productivity, we are still nowhere near the kind of productivity gains registered in the post-WWII period or at the turn of the millennium. We remain much closer to the productivity recorded in the 1970s or early 1980s (Chart 7).  As a result, we expect technology not to be enough of a game changer to undo the inflationary effect of the shift away from the pro-capital, deregulatory, pro-global-trade consensus that prevailed for the past forty years. Ms. X: Your view rests on an assessment that political forces are structurally moving toward populism. Doesn’t the most recent US election counter this argument? Was it not a victory of centrism over populism? Chart 8AValuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Chart 8BValuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Chart 8CValuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Chart 8DValuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns Valuations Point To Poor Long-Term Returns BCA: It was a victory of moderation over populism, but it was a narrow victory that reveals powerful populist undercurrents, particularly the strong demand for economic reflation. Despite a pandemic and recession in the election year, President Trump narrowly lost in the key swing states, and managed to garner roughly 74 million votes, the second highest tally in history. Moreover he led the Republican Party to gain seats in the House of Representatives and (likely) to retain control of the Senate. Exit polls reveal that the economy was still the number one issue on voters’ minds – they rejected Donald Trump’s personality but embraced his “growth at any cost” approach. By the same token, the Democratic Party lost elections down the ballot because they became associated with lockdowns and revolutionary social causes. President-Elect Joe Biden won the election, first, by not being Donald Trump, and second, by campaigning on a larger government spending program, a moderately liberal social stance, and a less belligerent protectionism on trade and China. The fact that both candidates wanted large stimulus packages and infrastructure programs tells us something about the median voter’s stance on economic policy: it is reflationary. Going forward, if Republicans control the Senate then the Biden administration will have to appeal to moderate Republican senators to get enough votes for COVID relief and economic recovery. If Democrats gain control of the Senate on January 5, they will have a one-vote majority and their legislative agenda will depend on winning over moderate Democratic senators. The Republican scenario is less reflationary but more likely, while the Democratic scenario is more reflationary but less likely. What investors can count on in 2021 is that the US government will not enact the mammoth splurge of government spending but that Republican senators will also be cognizant of the need for some fiscal support. Mr. X: If you expect inflation to rise structurally, how should we position our portfolio on a long-term basis? Bonds will obviously suffer, but so will an extremely expensive equity market that requires low bond yields to justify current prices. It seems like there is nowhere to hide but gold. BCA: The next one to two decades will not look like the past four, which were extraordinarily rewarding for investors. The taming of inflation, the broadening of globalization and far-reaching deregulation both cut interest rates and boosted profit margins. These trends stimulated demand and lifted asset valuations. These dynamics fed exceptional returns for all financial assets. However, these tailwinds have dissipated. The Fed will look through next year’s temporary inflation rebound. This change has many important implications for portfolio construction. You are correct that it will be hard for equities to generate decent real returns in the coming decade. Valuations may be a poor gauge of immediate stock returns, but they are clearly correlated with long-term returns (Chart 8). The odds of higher inflation in the second half of the decade will eventually cause policymakers to raise interest rates and force a normalization of equities multiples. Moreover, greater regulation and rising populism will raise the share of GDP absorbed by wages. Profit margins are likely to decline from here (Chart 9). Chart 9Profit Margins Under Threat? Profit Margins Under Threat? Profit Margins Under Threat? Despite the poor long-term outlook for real stock returns, equities should still outperform bonds. Over the past 150 years, shares beat bonds in each episode of cyclically rising inflation, even if stocks generate paltry inflation-adjusted returns (Table 2). This time will not be different. Equities are significantly cheaper than bonds. Based on the current level of bond and dividend yields, US, Eurozone, UK and Japan bourses need to fall in real terms 23%, 32% 50% and 20%, respectively, over the next 10-year to underperform local government bonds (Chart 10). Additionally, the duration of bonds is very high due to their extremely low yields, which means that bond prices are exceptionally sensitive to rising rates. Table 2Stocks Beat Bonds, Part I OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World In contrast to the past 40 years, a 60/40 portfolio will fare poorly once we account for higher inflation. During the period from 1965 to 1982, when US core CPI inflation rose from 1.2% to 13.6%, the 60/40 portfolio lost 30% of its value in real terms (Chart 11). Moreover, the portfolio started to suffer poor inflation-adjusted returns well before inflation moved into double digits. As soon as CPI accelerated in 1966, the standard portfolio began to lose value. This time, inflation will not reach the dizzying height of the late 70s, but equities are trading at price-to-sales, price-to-book or Shiller P/E 33% above that of 1965 and Treasury yields stand at 0.88%, not 4.65%. Chart 10Stocks Beat Bonds, Part II Stocks Beat Bonds, Part II Stocks Beat Bonds, Part II Chart 11The 60/40 Portfolio Doesn't Like Inflation The 60/40 Portfolio Doesn't Like Inflation The 60/40 Portfolio Doesn't Like Inflation   The problematic long-term outlook for the 60/40 portfolio will demand greater creativity from investors than over the past 40 years. We like assets such as farmland, timberland, and natural resources as inflation hedges. We also like precious metals. Silver is particularly attractive; like gold it thrives from rising inflation, but unlike its yellow counterpart, silver trades at a discount to its fair value implied by the long-term trend in consumer prices (Chart 12). Industrial metals are also interesting; the effort to reduce carbon emissions will hurt fossil fuel prices but will require greater reliance on electricity. Hence, the demand for copper will stay robust while investments in extraction capacity have been poor for the last decade. Silver, a great electricity and heat conductor, will also benefit from this trend. Chart 12Silver Is Cheaper Than Gold Silver Is Cheaper Than Gold Silver Is Cheaper Than Gold Within equity portfolios, winners and losers will also change. Empirically, technology, utilities and telecom services underperform when inflation rises durably. On the other hand, healthcare, materials and real estate outperform. The first group does not possess much pricing power in an accelerating CPI environment while the second does, justifying the bifurcated relative performances. We recommend tilting long-term equity exposure this way. Finally, this sectoral view implies a structural overweight in Europe and Japan at the expense of the US and emerging markets. Mr X: Thank you. This discussion about long-term risks and portfolio construction was very useful. That being said, the thought of MMT becoming more mainstream leaves me extremely uncomfortable. The Economic Outlook Ms. X: From your observations on the vaccine rollout, I presume you expect the recovery to remain robust next year. Aren’t you concerned that a big part of the G-10 could experience a double dip recession in the first half of the year? BCA: Near-term risks are very elevated and it is likely that Europe is experiencing a renewed slump in activity as we speak. In response to the recent violent second wave of infections, consumers have avoided public spaces and governments across the continent and in the UK have implemented increasingly stringent lockdowns. Various high-frequency indicators and live trackers for the regions already indicate that another contraction in activity is taking place (Chart 13). The US is not immune to a slowdown. The country is in the thrall of its third wave of infections and local governments are increasingly imposing lockdowns. Just look at New York City, which is somewhat of a canary in the coalmine for the nation, where schools have closed. This development is happening as the economy was already slowing down after a blistering recovery in the third quarter. Naturally, the US economic surprise index is quickly declining, which indicates that economic data is falling short of expectations (Chart 14). Chart 13The European Economy Is Slowing Right Now The European Economy Is Slowing Right Now The European Economy Is Slowing Right Now Chart 14The US Economy Is Decelerating The US Economy Is Decelerating The US Economy Is Decelerating   Growth is slowing but the level of US GDP is not doomed to contract. First, inventory restocking could add as much as 3.5% to current quarter GDP. Second, consumer spending is still robust. This summer, household savings jumped massively in response to both the large transfers created by the CARES act as well as the low marginal propensity to spend caused by depressed consumer confidence. Now, consumers are deploying this large pool of funds, which is buttressing expenditures. Despite these short-term headwinds, growth in 2021 should be well above trend in the US and in Europe. The ECB Target II balance permanently attaches Germany to its weaker neighbors. Mr. X: What about the risk that a lack of fiscal stimulus could scuttle the recovery? BCA: We are not overly concerned about that as we expect additional fiscal stimulus will come through in the coming months. Chart 15Borrowing Costs Are Not A Constraint To Spending OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World In Europe, the case for additional fiscal support is clear. All the major euro area countries, including Greece, can borrow at negative interest rates, depending on the maturity (Chart 15). This too is true for Sweden, Switzerland and even the UK. Within the Eurozone, the issuance linked to the European Commission’s Recovery Fund represents the first wave of common-debt issuance. It is an embryonic tool for fiscal risk sharing, one that goes further than the European Stability Mechanism, and it is an important driver of the spread compression in the European bond market. European governments are under little pressure to apply any fiscal brake because of these low borrowing costs. Moreover, the various European central banks are buttressing government bond markets. Thus, fiscal authorities have a free hand to provide additional support if they choose to do so while lockdowns remain in place. The loose fiscal setting will allow activity to recover quickly. In the US, the situation is more complex, but we expect at least a minimal level of support. The gridlock in Washington prevents the large stimulus that would have passed under a unified Democratic control of Congress. However, a Biden administration faced with a Senate controlled by the GOP also cannot increase taxes significantly. Meanwhile the Republicans are willing to provide additional help as long as it targets households and small businesses. Netting these forces out, we expect a stimulus package of $500 billion to $1 trillion. This is smaller than the various offers on the table prior to the election, but the more concrete eventuality of a vaccine deployment in the first half of 2021 also means that the economy needs help for a shorter period. While the risk to the forecast is that the Democrats and the Republican reach a larger compromise, investors may have to wait months for a deal. This delay could magnify the underlying weakness in the US economy. Chart 16The Chinese Locomotive Is Intact The Chinese Locomotive Is Intact The Chinese Locomotive Is Intact In Japan, the law prescribes a negative fiscal thrust of –7.1% of GDP. We doubt this will transpire. Prime Minister Suga does not want to kill a nascent recovery and feed powerful deflationary pressures. Hence, supplementary budgets will provide more support to growth. Ms. X: Last year, we spoke a lot about China as an important driver of the global manufacturing cycle and growth. Is this still the case? BCA: China remains an important factor supporting our positive stance on global growth in 2021. Thanks to the aggressive use of testing and tracing, China has contained the virus, which is letting the economy heal and respond normally to monetary policy. On this front, the lagged impact of the easing enacted since 2019 will continue. Total social financing flows have rebounded to 33% of GDP and are consistent with a further improvement in our China Activity Indicator (Chart 16). Strengthening Chinese cyclical spending will lift imports of raw materials and machinery. The uptick in the Chinese credit and fiscal impulse suggests that China will remain a positive force for the rest of the world until the second half of 2021. After the summer, the positive impact of China on global growth will ebb. The PBoC is already allowing market interest rates to increase, which suggests that the apex of the credit easing was reached in Q4. Nonetheless, President Xi Jinping cannot tolerate any kind of instability ahead of the 100th anniversary of the CCP in October 2021. Thus, the fiscal and monetary policy tightening will be calibrated before that date and will only become a major risk afterwards. As a result, global growth will enjoy its maximum contribution from Chinese demand around Q2 2021. After that, Chinese activity will still be high enough to keep global industrial production elevated, but not enough to cause a further acceleration.  Chart 17China's Marginal Propensity To Consume Augurs Well China's Marginal Propensity To Consume Augurs Well China's Marginal Propensity To Consume Augurs Well Another good news for the Chinese and global economies is the recent pickup in China’s marginal propensity to consume (MPC), as approximated by the gap between the growth rate of M1 and M2 money supply (Chart 17). When M1 accelerates faster than M2, demand deposits are growing quicker than savings deposits, which highlights that economic agents are positioning their liquidity for increased spending. The MPC’s uptick will reinforce the positive signal for global economic activity from China’s credit trend. It also creates upside risk for China’s economy in the second half of the year compared to what policy dynamics imply. Ms. X: Beyond China and fiscal policy, do you foresee any other tailwinds for the global business cycle? BCA: Yes, there are plenty. As we already mentioned, the vaccine should allow the service sector to normalize progressively over the course of the year. Households’ healthy balance sheets will underpin US consumer spending next year. At the end of 2019, debt to disposable income stood at an 18-year low and the debt servicing-costs ratio was near generational troughs. In addition, both of these measures of financial health only improved during the crisis. Collapsing interest rates allowed households to refinance their mortgages and government transfers boosted disposable income. Likewise, after a very negative shock in Q1, household net worth quickly rebounded in Q2 when asset prices surged and household savings grew (Chart 18). The wealth effect will therefore help consumption, especially because employment continues to improve. The odds of higher yields are most pronounced for longer maturities. The outlook for capex is also bright. Capex intentions have been surprisingly robust in recent months and core durable goods shipments have reached all-time highs (Chart 19). Admittedly, capex is a lagging economic variable – companies take their cues from the behavior of households. But, this means that, as household spending continues to recover, so will capital investment. Another way to approach this topic is to think about the link between capex and corporate profitability. In capital budgeting, the pecking order theory argues that retained earnings are the preferred source of financing for corporate investments. This theory is echoed by empirical evidence. Business capital formation follows operating profits by roughly six months (Chart 20). The positive outlook for profits therefore bodes well for capex. Chart 18Solid Household Balance Sheets In The US Solid Household Balance Sheets In The US Solid Household Balance Sheets In The US Chart 19Surprising Capex Rebound Surprising Capex Rebound Surprising Capex Rebound Chart 20Earnings Drive Capex Earnings Drive Capex Earnings Drive Capex A major concern for the US economy is commercial real estate. This sector’s losses will likely be very large because many buildings are now uneconomical. Even if vaccines normalize daily activities, post-pandemic life has in some ways been reshaped. Workers are likely to conduct more of their job from home and shoppers have become used to the convenience of E-commerce. As a result, the need for office and retail space will decrease, which falling rents are already reflecting. The hit to the US banking system is still unknown. While CRE accounts for 13% of bank assets, this exposure is concentrated within smaller regional banks, which are much frailer than their SIFI counterparts (Chart 21). We could therefore see some localized troubles within a banking system that is tightening credit standards already (Chart 22). This danger warrants close monitoring. Chart 21CRE Is A Threat For Small Banks CRE Is A Threat For Small Banks CRE Is A Threat For Small Banks Chart 22Another Tightening In Standards Would Be Dangerous Another Tightening In Standards Would Be Dangerous Another Tightening In Standards Would Be Dangerous Chart 23Europe Is More Exposed To Chinese Demand Europe Is More Exposed To Chinese Demand Europe Is More Exposed To Chinese Demand It is not clear whether the US or the euro area will enjoy the sharpest growth improvement in 2021. Normally, Europe benefits the most during a manufacturing upswing, especially when China’s marginal propensity to consume is expanding (Chart 23). The European economy is more cyclical than that of the US because exports and manufacturing constitute a larger share of employment and gross value added (Chart 23, bottom panel). Moreover, the fiscal drag in Europe is likely to subtract roughly 3% from GDP next year while it could subtract 5% to 7% from the US GDP. However, an important handicap will counterbalance these advantages for Europe; the biggest source of economic delta next year should be the service sector because spending on goods began to recover in earnest in 2020. There is simply more pent-up demand left in services than goods and the service sector accounts for a larger share of output in the US than in Europe. Three additional factors could also favor the US against both Europe and Japan. First, residential activity is rebounding more quickly in North America. Historically, residential investment makes a large contribution to cyclical expenditures and it galvanizes additional spending on durable goods. Second, the Fed was able to engineer deeper declines in real interest rates than the ECB or the BoJ while Washington expanded the deficit faster than Tokyo or most European capitals. Finally, the weak dollar is creating another relief valve unavailable to Japan and Europe. In fact, the euro’s strength is potentially the greatest dampener of the European recovery in the coming quarter. Finally, emerging economies face important domestic hurdles that will handicap them significantly versus advanced economies in the first half of the year. EM banking systems remain fragile after the violent capital outflows witnessed in the first half of 2020. Thus, their ability to expand credit is comparatively limited. Moreover, EM economies have yet to withstand the inevitable second wave of infections, and their healthcare systems are even weaker than in advanced economies. The logistical complications associated with the rollouts of the vaccine will be most acute in poorer countries. Mr. X: I share your worries about long-term inflation, but where do you stand regarding near-term dynamics? A faster inflation recovery would amount to the kiss of death for asset markets. BCA: You are correct that faster inflation would threaten asset markets. It would force a rapid re-pricing of the Fed’s policy path and lift yields higher. Expensive stocks would buckle under this impulse. However, while it is a risk we monitor closely, it is far from our base case. We particularly like real yield curve steepeners. To begin with, both the output gap and the unemployment gap will remain meaningful in 2021. Our US Composite Capacity Utilization Indicator is not consistent with higher inflation (Chart 24). Additionally, at 6.9%, the US unemployment rate understates the amount of slack in the labor market. The employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers offers a more accurate read of the labor market because it accounts for discouraged workers. This labor market indicator points toward limited inflation in the Employment Cost Index (Chart 25). Chart 24Limited Immediate Inflationary Pressures Limited Immediate Inflationary Pressures Limited Immediate Inflationary Pressures Chart 25The Labor Market Is Replete With Slack OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World Inflation is still likely to spike in the first half of the year, but this jump will prove temporary. In the second quarter, both the core CPI and the core PCE inflation will incorporate a strong base effect when annual comparisons include the extremely depressed numbers that prevailed at the nadir of the recession. Moreover, once the service sector reopens in response to broadening vaccination programs, service sector inflation could pop higher, as goods prices did once the goods sector reopened last summer. The base effect will quickly ebb and the initial surge in service inflation should also dissipate because shelter inflation will remain dampened by stubborn permanent unemployment (Chart 26). The Fed will look through next year’s temporary inflation rebound. Its new average inflation target officialized last September is designed to avoid this kind of premature response and Fed officials are currently more afraid of committing deflationary errors than inflationary ones. Markets understand this well. Hence, as long as inflation breakeven rates remain below the 2.3% to 2.5% band consistent with market participants believing in the Fed’s ability to achieve 2% inflation durably (Chart 27), market wobbles caused by higher inflation will create buying opportunities. Chart 26Shelter Inflation Will Remain Downbeat Shelter Inflation Will Remain Downbeat Shelter Inflation Will Remain Downbeat Chart 27The Fed Monitors Inflation Expectations The Fed Monitors Inflation Expectations The Fed Monitors Inflation Expectations   One factor could cause inflation to start moving durably higher than our base case anticipates. So far, money supply is behaving very differently than in the wake of the GFC. Back then, the Fed aggressively expanded its balance sheet, but the private sector’s deleveraging compressed money demand. Consequently, the Fed’s money injections stayed trapped in the banking system where excess reserves swelled. Broad money growth was tepid and the money multiplier collapsed. Today, the private sector is not deleveraging and M2 has surged at its fastest pace since 1944. Thanks to this lack of monetary bottlenecks, real interest rates fell much faster than in 2008/9 even if the nominal Fed Funds rate dropped to zero in both instances (Chart 28). Monetary conditions are therefore much more accommodative than they were 12 years ago. Another consequence of a functioning monetary system is that the broad money supply’s advance is outstripping the Treasury’s issuance. Historically, when money supply grows quicker than government debt, inflation emerges (Chart 29). We are tracking the velocity of money closely to gauge whether this risk is morphing into reality. Chart 28Policy Is More Accommodative Than During the GFC bca.ems_ctm_2024_04_29_c6 Policy Is More Accommodative Than During the GFC Policy Is More Accommodative Than During the GFC Chart 29An Inflationary Risk An Inflationary Risk An Inflationary Risk   Ms. X: Before we move on to asset market forecasts for 2021, I would like to hear your thoughts on Brexit and the extraordinary showing of European unity last summer. BCA: We came very close to ending the Brexit transition period without a free-trade agreement between the UK and the EU. First, PM Boris Johnson had been under attack from the right wing of the Conservative party. In response, his government ramped up the hard rhetoric in recent months. However, the negative impact on the British economy in the absence of a free trade agreement with the EU was always a binding constraint on the PM. Hence, the tough rhetoric was mostly bluster and negotiation tactic with Brussels. Second, the electoral defeat of President Donald Trump in the US means that the UK is unlikely to receive preferential treatment from the US if it cannot reach a trade deal with the EU. The UK would be on its own, especially because President-Elect Joe Biden is likely to side with the EU, with whom he wants to rebuild a relationship. On the EU side, it is highly unlikely that Berlin will let French demands on fishing rights threaten its capacity to sell to its 5th export market. Thus, we expect a deal to come to fruition imminently. The move toward fiscal integration in Europe is also crucial beyond its near-term bullish impact on Italian, Spanish or Portuguese bonds. Jean Monnet, one of the architects of the 1951 Treaty of Paris that created the European Coal and Steel Community (the EU’s embryo), famously wrote in his memoirs that: “Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.” We witnessed these dynamics last summer. The EUR750 billion Recovery Fund created by the European Commission to help economies struggling with the pandemic will issue its own bonds. It is the first step toward a permanent common bond issuance mechanism and fiscal risk sharing in the euro area. As expensive as stocks may be in absolute terms, the monetary and yield backdrop creates a large enough buffer for now. The experience of last decade’s euro crisis shows that temporary solutions often become permanent features of the EU, even if its treaties originally forbade them. The latest move will be no exception. The euro is popular; it is supported by 83%, 60%, 72%, 76% and 82% of the Spanish, Italian French, Dutch and German populations, respectively (Chart 30). Moreover, German support for the euro is particularly important. Germany’s current account surplus equals 7% of GDP because of the euro. The euro is a lot weaker than the Deutsche mark would be, which boosts German exporters’ competitiveness in international markets and within the euro area. Without the common currency, German cars would be much more expensive in France, Italy or China than they are today. Chart 30The Glue That Binds Europe Together The Glue That Binds Europe Together The Glue That Binds Europe Together Likewise, the ECB Target II balance permanently attaches Germany to its weaker neighbors. Italy and Spain owe EUR 1 trillion to this settlement system while Germany is owed EUR915 billion. If Italy or Spain were to go bankrupt or to leave the euro and redenominate their debt in lira or pesetas, the resulting hit would threaten the viability of the German banking system (Chart 30, bottom panel). Chart 31Competitiveness Convergence Competitiveness Convergence Competitiveness Convergence The past competitiveness problems of the European periphery are also steadily diminishing. Compared to Germany, harmonized unit labor costs in Italy or Spain have fallen 15% since 2009 and are not far from the levels prevailing at the introduction of the euro in 1999 (Chart 31). Consequently, current account deficits in Spain and Italy are narrowing considerably. Germany’s euro benefits, the tie created by the Target II imbalances and the periphery's improved competitiveness only bring Europe together and they allow the COVID-19 crisis to force a closer union. While these developments have little implication for Europe’s growth next year, they constitute a major long-term positive because they will curtail the cost of capital in the periphery and permit the sharing of funds necessary to build a lasting monetary union. Ms. X: To summarize; at the beginning of 2021, global growth should remain volatile. However, the recovery will ultimately strengthen over the remainder of the year thanks to the rollout of vaccines, the sustained fiscal support across major economies, the continued positive impact of China’s economic healing, and the strength of household balance sheets. Capex will remain robust as well, even if commercial real estate is a dangerous spot that we must monitor. Moreover, it is too early to ascertain whether the US or the EU will experience the strongest recovery in 2021, but emerging economies should lag behind. In addition, while you are concerned about the long-term inflation risk, consumer prices should not experience a durable pickup this year. Likewise, you foresee a benign outcome to the UK-EU trade negotiations and are positive on European integration. BCA: Yes, you summed it up nicely. Bond Market Prospects Ms. X: I find the Treasury market very puzzling right now. On the one hand, demanding valuations of US government bonds worry me, particularly in light of the upbeat economic outlook for 2021. On the other hand, if inflation remains low and the Fed is unlikely to push up rates until 2022 at the earliest, the upside for yields should be limited.  BCA: We recommend a below-benchmark duration for fixed-income portfolios with an investment horizon of 12 months or so. Valuations partially underpin this recommendation. Our Global and US Bond Valuation Indices highlight that government bonds are at the level of overvaluation that, over the past 30 years, often produce a negative return in the following 12 months (Chart 32). However, valuations only indicate the degree of vulnerability of an asset but they rarely trigger price moves. Instead, timing most often relies on cyclical and technical factors. Favor cyclical equities relative to defensive ones. Cyclical forces are increasingly negative for bonds. In the US, our BCA Pipeline Inflation Indicator has perked up. It is not pointing toward an imminent rise in inflation but it suggests that deflationary risks are ebbing, something BCA’s Corporate Pricing Power Proxy also captures (Chart 33). A removal of the left-tail risk in CPI should push up yields, especially as our BCA Nominal Cyclical Spending Proxy is also firming, which normally happens ahead of meaningful yield pickups (Chart 33, bottom panel). Chart 32Pricey Bonds Pricey Bonds Pricey Bonds Chart 33Cyclical Risks For Bond Prices Cyclical Risks For Bond Prices Cyclical Risks For Bond Prices Chart 34Investors Will Want Protection Against Inflation Uncertainty Investors Will Want Protection Against Inflation Uncertainty Investors Will Want Protection Against Inflation Uncertainty The odds of higher yields are most pronounced for longer maturities. First, our central forecast expects a significant rise in inflation in the latter part of the decade. Second, monetary and fiscal policy will remain very accommodative over the coming years even as private demand increases, which will lift medium- to long-term inflation uncertainty. Rising inflation uncertainty usually facilitates a steepening of the yield curve (Chart 34). Despite these forces, the upside to yields will prove limited in 2021. The Fed’s new inflation target means that it will be patient, and waiting for core PCE inflation to move sustainably above 2% could take time. The US central bank is therefore unlikely to increase interest rates for many years. This inertia limits the immediate upside in Treasury yields, but does not preclude it. While the Fed will not be quick to lift off, its forward interest rate guidance is not going to get any more dovish and the bond market is already pricing-in the first rate hike for late 2023. This expected liftoff date will be brought forward as the economy recovers, meaning that long-maturity nominal yields, real yields and inflation breakeven rates all have moderate upside. The recent equity market leadership of growth stocks is another limiting factor for higher yields. Growth stocks are extremely sensitive to long bond yields. If the latter back up too fast, it will scuttle bourses and unleash risk aversion and deflationary pressures. This creates an upper bound on the speed at which yields can move up. Mr. X: Even with their limited room to fall in the near term, the meaningful long-term and valuation risks of bonds make them so unappealing to me that I refrain from using them as near-term portfolio hedges. How can I protect my equity holdings right now? BCA: Hedging near-term risks to stocks has become one of the most hotly discussed topic with our clients because investors are witnessing the increasingly asymmetric payoffs of bonds. When equity prices rise, bond prices typically decline, but when stocks correct, bond prices barely rally. This newfound behavior of safe-haven bonds is a consequence of global policy rates having moved to or near their lower bound. We increasingly like small-cap firms relative to large-cap ones. For non-US based investors, there is a simple solution to this problem: parking some funds in US cash because the USD still acts as an effective hedge against market corrections. For US-based investors, finding adequate protection is more challenging. Those who can short and use leverage should sell currency pairs with an elevated sensitivity to changes in risk aversion, such as the EUR/CHF, AUD/JPY or MXN/JPY, to achieve some protection. Otherwise, holding cash to buy back stocks at lower levels remains an appropriate strategy. Mr. X: Which government bond market do you like most, or more accurately, which one should I avoid most right now? BCA: At the moment, we prefer the European periphery. The valuation ranking we often use when we see you is clear: Portuguese, Greek, Italian or Spanish bonds are the cheapest while German Bunds and US T-Notes are exceptionally expensive (Chart 35). Real bond yields confirm this estimation. Additionally, the nascent fiscal risk-sharing created by the European Commission’s Recovery Fund should result in declining breakup risk premia embedded in peripheral bonds. Furthermore, the ECB’s asset purchases are set to rise in response to Frankfurt’s efforts to fight off the deflationary effect of both the euro’s appreciation and the second wave’s lockdowns. Chart 35The Value Is In Europe’s Periphery OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World We are more negative on US Treasuries than Bunds. The valuation difference between the two safe havens is minimal. However, in 2020 the US has been more reflationary than Europe and the recent decline in the USD should lift US inflation relative to Germany’s, which will widen yield differentials in favor of Bund prices (Chart 36). Besides, the US economy has a higher potential GDP growth than Europe, which warrants a superior neutral rate of interest. Consequently, investors should expect US real yields to rise relative to the euro area’s benchmark. Outside of these markets, dedicated fixed-income investors should also overweight JGBs within their portfolio. JGBs have a low yield beta, which will limit their price declines if global yields move up. If the global recovery peters off, this feature will not create a major handicap because global yields have limited room to fall from here. Moreover, Japanese bonds are the cheapest safe haven (Chart 37). Chart 36Bunds vs Treasuries: Follow The Inflation Gap Bunds vs Treasuries: Follow The Inflation Gap Bunds vs Treasuries: Follow The Inflation Gap Chart 37JGBs Are The More Attractive Safe Haven OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World   We are neutral Canadian and Australian bonds. Historically, Canadian and Australian yields tend to have high betas to US T-Note yields. However, the BoC and the RBA are very active purchasers in their domestic markets, which will dampen the volatility of Canadian and Australian bonds. Ms. X: Considering the limited scope for major interest rate moves next year, what are your high-conviction trades for fixed-income portfolios? BCA: Within US government bond markets, we like curve steepeners. We also recommend positioning for rising inflation expectations by going overweight TIPS relative to nominal Treasuries. We particularly like real yield curve steepeners (within the TIPS curve). The cost of short-maturity inflation protection is below that of long-maturity protection, which means that short-term inflation breakeven rates have more upside as core PCE returns to the Fed’s target. A TIPS-curve steepener benefits from both a flattening of the inflation breakeven curve and a steepening of the nominal Treasury curve. It is therefore a high-octane play on both our favored strategies. We like both Europe and Japan. Within US corporate credit, we are currently overweight investment grade and Ba-rated high-yield bonds. However, valuation at the upper-end of the credit spectrum heavily favors tax-exempt municipal bonds over corporates. Investors that can take advantage of the tax exemption should prefer munis over investment grade corporates. Elsewhere, we are underweight MBS as pre-payment risk is elevated, but we like consumer ABS due to the strong position of household balance sheets. Ms. X: Before we moved on to equities, where do you stand on EM credit? Do you expect any global search for yield to push EM bond prices higher? BCA: With a few exceptions like Mexico and Russia, we prefer US corporate bonds to dollar denominated EM bonds of similar credit quality. EM bonds offer poorer value, but EM spreads will continue to evolve in line with US corporate spreads. Because of this directional correlation, our preference for US investment grade bonds translates to EM bonds as well. Our more circumspect attitude toward EM high-yield bonds also reflects our more conservative stance on US high-yield bonds. For local-currency rates, we are receivers in the swap market because the near-term outlook for EM currencies is difficult. Most EM countries have a deflation problem, not inflation troubles. Hence, real and nominal rates in emerging economies will fall as central banks try to stimulate their economies. These declines will be positive for the local-currency performance of EM bonds but it will hurt their currencies. Over the next twelve months, this challenge will be most pronounced against non-US DM currencies. In the short-term, this hindrance will also exist against the USD because the Greenback should rebound temporarily, something we can discuss in more detail in our chat about the currency and commodity markets. Our favorite bets are to receive Mexican, Colombian, Russian, Indian, Chinese and Korean swap rates. Mr. X: I agree that the case to make a major duration bet next year is limited, but risks are slightly skewed toward upside for yields. I am a little surprised that you like European peripheral bonds so much and yet prefer Bunds to Treasuries. I will have to digest your view on EM bonds because I would have bought EM currencies outright. Finally, I find your real yield curve steepener idea extremely intriguing. Thank you for giving me ideas to ponder. Now, shall we move to next year’s equity outlook? Equity Market Outlook Chart 38The Bubble Can Grow The Bubble Can Grow The Bubble Can Grow Mr. X: I am a firm believer that growth stocks, tech in particular, are in a massive bubble. My daughter tries to convince me that we cannot generalize. Yet, both my gut and my brain tell me to seek refuge in value stocks. I appreciate that the outlook for tech stocks hinges on the evolution of monetary policy. Nonetheless, I think that any small shock can topple the so-called FANGs because they are so expensive and over-owned. I fear that where the FANGs go, so will the market. BCA: We have recently published a report broaching the question of bursting bubbles. When real interest rates are negative, when money supply is expanding at a double digit pace and when the Fed is extremely reluctant to tighten policy, the chances that a bubble will deflate are extremely low, even if stocks are furiously expensive (Chart 38). Beyond monetary tightening, an escalation in the supply of financial instruments also caused some bubbles to deflate. For example, an increase in the number of tulips following a harvest contributed to the end of the tulip mania. Bubbles from the eighteenth century, such as the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Company Bubble, followed stock issuances or regulatory changes. Even during the tech bubble, the large IPOs of the late 1990s added to the supply of securities available to investors. Right now, we are not witnessing this surge in supply. Buybacks, which are a contraction in supply, have acted as a key fuel to the bubble in the tech sector. Moreover, dominant tech titans have built large moats around their businesses because they often rely on pronounced network effects, if they are not a network themselves. These monopolistic behaviors account for their large profit margins, but they also prevent the emergence of viable competitors in the near term. Meanwhile, the mushrooming of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) is worrisome in the long-term. They are mostly vehicles to conduct backdoor IPOs of private firms. For now, they remain too small to topple the bubble. The real worry for tech investors is the eventual resurgence of inflation. During the tech bubble at the turn of the millennium, the rise in core CPI in early 2000 forced investors to discount more rate hikes, which toppled tech equities (Chart 39). As we discussed already, the outlook for inflation is benign for 2021, but if it were to change, tech stocks could fall in absolute terms. We expect tech names to underperform the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, but not to fall outright. This is akin to the experience of Japanese banks in the 1980s. In the first half of that decade, Japanese lenders stood at the forefront of the equity bubble. However, in the late 1980s, they lagged behind the rest of the Nikkei, even if they generated positive absolute returns (Chart 40). Chart 39Inflation Is The Threat To Tech Stocks Inflation Is The Threat To Tech Stocks Inflation Is The Threat To Tech Stocks Chart 40Without Falling, Bubble Leaders Can Still Lag Without Falling, Bubble Leaders Can Still Lag Without Falling, Bubble Leaders Can Still Lag   Ms. X: I agree, it is hard to be too negative on stocks next year with the Fed standing firmly on the sidelines. What do you see as the market’s main driver in 2021 and what is the biggest risk to the outlook? BCA: Many important factors underpin global equities. First, we still are in the early innings of a new business cycle upswing. Statistically, bull markets most often end when earnings permanently decline. This observation means that equity bear markets rarely develop in the absence of recession (Chart 41).  Chart 41Recessions And Bear Markets Travel Together Recessions And Bear Markets Travel Together Recessions And Bear Markets Travel Together Second, as expensive as stocks may be in absolute terms, the monetary and yield backdrop creates a large enough buffer for now. The combination of our Valuation and Monetary Indicators remains in low-risk territory, which historically is consistent with positive absolute returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 12 to 18 months (Chart 42). However, the gap between the two indicators is narrower than it was last spring, which suggests that the easy market gains lie behind us. Another tool to think about valuations is the Equity Risk Premium. Our measure, which adjusts for the lack of stationarity of the ERP’s mean as well as for the expected growth of cash flows, is not as wide as it was in Q2 or Q3, but it remains congruent with positive prospective equity returns (Chart 43). Chart 42Monetary Policy Beats Valuations, For Now Monetary Policy Beats Valuations, For Now Monetary Policy Beats Valuations, For Now Chart 43The ERP Points To Positive Stock Returns in 2021 The ERP Points To Positive Stock Returns in 2021 The ERP Points To Positive Stock Returns in 2021   Third, forward earnings estimates will rise further. The gap between the Backlog of Orders and the Customers’ Inventories subcomponents of the ISM survey indicates that earnings revisions will continue to climb from here (Chart 44). Additionally, our Corporate Pricing Power Proxy is back into neutral territory after having flashed dangerous deflationary pressures. Thanks to the operating leverage embedded in equities, improving selling prices can quickly push the bottom line higher (Chart 45). The rollout of vaccines next year will only feed these dynamics and help profit growth even further. Chart 44Room For Positive Earnings Revisions Room For Positive Earnings Revisions Room For Positive Earnings Revisions Chart 45Less Deflation Is Good For Earnings Less Deflation Is Good For Earnings Less Deflation Is Good For Earnings     Fourth, our benign expectations for the credit market is consistent with both higher multiples and earnings. A well-functioning credit market is essential to risk taking and multiples. It also allows capex to remain well sustained and cyclical spending to expand. Both these forces are bullish for profits. Fifth, our negative stance on the dollar will ease global financial conditions. A weaker dollar pushes down the global cost of capital, which strengthens the global industrial cycle. Global stock markets overweight the industrial and goods sectors relative to the economy. Therefore, global bourses benefit from a weaker dollar. The greatest risk for stocks is an uncontrolled jump in bond yields, where 10-year Treasury yields climb above 1.2% in a short period, especially if real rates drive the leap. Too quick an adjustment in the cost of capital would threaten the ERP and it would hurt the multiples of growth stocks that are highly sensitive to fluctuations in the discount rate. Moreover, a rapid rise in borrowing costs would likely force a more precipitous deceleration in the housing sector, which is a key locomotive of the recovery. Another risk is that vaccine rollouts are delayed, which would rapidly sap growth expectations. Mr. X: Rather than taking a large net long exposure in equities, I would favor value stocks at the expense of growth stocks. The valuation gap between both styles is exceptionally wide, and value equities have not been this cheap on a relative basis since at least 2000, or more, depending on the indices used . As a result, they embed a much greater margin of safety than growth stocks, which makes me rest easier because I am less comfortable than you are about this equity bubble’s near-term prospects. Chart 46Favor Cyclicals Over Defensives Favor Cyclicals Over Defensives Favor Cyclicals Over Defensives Ms. X: As I mentioned at the beginning of our chat, I, however, prefer growth stocks. The sectors most represented in the value indices face secular headwinds such as low rates, a move away from carbon, and the increasing role of software, not goods, as the source of value added in our economies. Meanwhile, growth stocks also benefit from the aging of the population, the historically low trend growth rate of the global economy, and the network effects, which protect the profit margins of large tech firms. As you can see, my father and I have been clashing on this topic. Where do you stand? BCA: Within the firm, we have had our disagreements on this topic as well. One thing we all agree upon is that the growth-versus-value debate amounts to a sector call. One common preference we share is to favor cyclical equities relative to defensive ones. Over the coming 12 months, a weak dollar, rising inflation expectations, the strengthening of the Chinese and global economy and improving capex will all conspire to boost the profit and multiples of cyclical stocks at the expense of defensive sectors (Chart 46). Nonetheless, if the Chinese economy starts to slow in the second half of 2021, we will have to evaluate if this bet remains valid. Within the cyclicals, we prefer the more traditional ones, like industrials and materials at the expense of the tech sector. The expected growth rate embedded in tech stocks is extremely elevated compared to the rest of the market in general and other cyclicals in particular (Chart 47). This aggressive pricing is rooted in the recent experience, whereby tech earnings significantly outperformed the rest of the market. However, this outperformance mirrored strong sales of techs goods and services during the pandemic, when households and firms prepared for long lockdowns and remote working. Gravity-defying sales in the midst of the deepest recession in 90 years stole demand away from the future. Now that the economy recovers, pent-up demand for tech goods is smaller than for other categories of cyclical spending. Thus, the current pricing of tech earnings growth leaves room for disappointments. Within traditional cyclicals, financials are a question mark. The broadening of the economic reopening subsequent to the rollout of the vaccines is positive for the quality of banks’ loan books. However, the scope for yields to rise is restricted, which will limit how steep the yield curve will become and how wide net interest margins will swell. Thus, for 2021, industrials and materials remain our favored sectors. Chart 47Too Much Earnings Optimism For Tech Stocks Too Much Earnings Optimism For Tech Stocks Too Much Earnings Optimism For Tech Stocks We also favor a basket of “back to work” stocks at the expense of “COVID-19 winners”. With vaccines coming through next year, this trade has further to run. The first group includes some airlines, hotels, oil producers, restaurant operators, capital goods manufacturers, credit card companies, automobile manufacturers and a steel producer.1 The second basket includes a bankruptcy consultant, a software company, some grocers, some biotech names, a Big Pharma company, a large e-commerce business, an online streaming service, a teleconferencing company and two household products leaders.2  For the next 12 to 18 months, we favor value stocks at the expense of growth stocks, which is a consequence of our preference for traditional cyclical names and of the “back to work” names. Moreover, since 2008, periods of economic acceleration correspond to quicker earnings growth of value stocks compared to growth equities (Chart 48). Additionally, if bond yields move up – even if not much, the multiples of value stocks should expand relative to growth firms (Chart 48, bottom panel). We also increasingly like small-cap firms relative to large-cap ones. Small cap indices have substantial underweights in healthcare and tech names, which contrasts with the S&P 500 or the S&P 100. Accordingly, the Russell 2000 both has a cyclical and value bend relative to large-cap benchmarks. Moreover, small call equities outperform the S&P 500 when the dollar declines and when commodity prices appreciate (Chart 49). Additionally, the recent sharp rebound in US railroad freight volumes will support the more-cyclical Russell 2000. Besides, greater shipments lead to upgrades of junk-bond credit ratings, which decreases the perceived riskiness of the heavily levered small cap firms (Chart 50). Chart 48Value Investors Will Like 2021 Value Investors Will Like 2021 Value Investors Will Like 2021 Chart 49The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part I The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part I The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part I Chart 50The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part II The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part II The Case For Small Cap Stocks, Part II The long-term picture is less clear. Many key supports for growth stocks remain in place. Principally, the aging of the population and the risk of rising inflation in the second half of the decade should flatter healthcare stocks. In addition, the wide profit margins of tech stocks are unlikely to fully mean-revert because firms like Amazon, Google or Microsoft benefit from monopolistic positions that have decoupled their profitability from their capital stock. For now, the biggest risk to these sectors would be a regulatory onslaught from Washington and Brussels. Meanwhile, the sectors composing value indices suffer from the structural headwinds that Ms. X already noted. Counterbalancing this narrative, the extreme relative overvaluation of growth stocks suggests that their prices reflect these long-term forces already. On a very near-term basis (next two to three months), the rapid rise in investor sentiment as well as the collapse in the put-call ratio are consistent with a correction or sideways move in equities (Chart 51). When this correction materializes, no meaningful trend in growth relative to value stocks should emerge. Therefore, we recommend tactical traders play relative value within growth stocks and within value equities, where overextended sectors should correct. Within growth, we would like to rotate away from tech into healthcare. Within value, the next three months should reward financials at the expense of materials. Chart 51Near-Term Risks For Stocks Near-Term Risks For Stocks Near-Term Risks For Stocks Ms. X: Based on these sectoral views, I gather you would underweight the US market. But where do you stand on emerging markets? BCA: You are correct, in 2021, we expect US equities to underperform the rest of the world. Their large weight in healthcare combined with the low beta of the US economy to global growth gives a defensive twist to the S&P 500. In addition to healthcare, the most significant overweight in the US equity benchmark is tech, which reinforces the growth style of US stocks. The US’s tech overweight is greater than appears because US communication services and consumer discretionary sectors are mostly tech names such as Facebook, Google, Netflix or Amazon (Table 3). Finally, our bearish outlook on the USD creates an additional hurdle for US equities relative to the rest of the world (Chart 52). Table 3Sector Representation In Various Regions OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World While we like both Europe and Japan, the latter stands out for 2021. Japanese stocks have particularly large allocations to the most attractive deep cyclicals (industrial and consumer discretionary equities) and are very cheap, even on a sector-to-sector comparison (Chart 53). To like Japan, we do not need to bet on a multiples convergence. This equity market’s low valuations mean that we are buying each unit of profit growth at a discount to the same sectors in the rest of the world. As a result, Japanese equities are more levered to our positive view on the earnings of deep cyclicals than any other major bourse. Chart 52US Stocks Underperform When The Dollar Weakens US Stocks Underperform When The Dollar Weakens US Stocks Underperform When The Dollar Weakens Chart 53Japan Offers The Right Exposure At The Right Price OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World   Finally, we are neutral on EM stocks. We like them more than US equities but less than Japan or Europe. EM stocks will benefit from a weaker dollar, but they have become tightly correlated to the NASDAQ due to the leadership of a few large tech names in Asia. Essentially, like the US, EM stocks have a very large weighting in the tech sector. If our view is correct that growth underperforms value next year, North Asian EM, which have driven EM stocks since March, will lag behind Latin America in 2021. Mr X: Thank you for your thoughts on equities. I agree that a monetary shock normally is needed to burst bubbles, but I also worry that the current extreme overvaluation of tech stocks could lead to gravity taking hold without the help of the Fed. This means that I am slightly less confident than you are that equities will rise this year. However, I agree with you that value stocks should beat growth stocks and that US equities should become the laggards after years of leadership. Ms. X: Should we move on to the currency and commodity markets? Currencies And Commodities Chart 54The Dollar Is Vulnerable Technically OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World Mr. X: I was skeptical last year, but your bearish dollar view panned out very well. However, you did not get its cause correctly. For one, you were constructive on global growth and consequently, negative on the dollar. I am skeptical that the dollar will depreciate much further in 2021 because it possesses a considerable yield advantage over other G-10 currencies. BCA: Today, the dollar sits at a critical spot. As you mentioned, we were negative on the USD last year; since then, it has breached all the major trend lines that have defined its bull market over the past nine years (Chart 54). This technical configuration suggests that more weakness is in store.  One thing is very clear, dollar bulls have gone missing. Speculators are heavily selling the USD. Bullish sentiment on the euro is at its most elevated level in a decade. Historically, when it faces such one-sided negativity, the dollar enjoys temporary rebounds. Nonetheless, the DXY’s upside should be limited, at 2-4%, not more. A few forces cap the dollar’s upside. The currencies with the most upside against the dollar in 2021 are the European currencies. The liquidity crunch that handicapped global markets in March is over. Most foreign central banks have ample access to dollar liquidity and do not rely on the Fed anymore, as its outstanding swap lines stand close to zero (Chart 55). In 2009, this was a clear signal that the dollar liquidity shortage was behind us. The Fed has increased its supply of domestic currency more aggressively than other central banks. Today, interest rates around the world are at zero. Therefore, central banks’ balance sheet policy and forward guidance are the main tools to communicate the future path of interest rates. Chart 56 shows that other G-10 central banks have been lagging the Fed in terms of their balance sheet expansion. This has hurt the dollar and benefitted other currencies. Chart 55No More Liquidity Crunch No More Liquidity Crunch No More Liquidity Crunch Chart 56Currencies Respond To Balance Sheets Currencies Respond To Balance Sheets Currencies Respond To Balance Sheets   US growth is lagging the rest of the world. This might not last, but growth differentials will continue to drive the performance of currencies, as they did in recent years. The November PMIs showed that the US economy held up well, but 2021 growth expectations from the IMF and other agencies favor the Eurozone. Finally, we are also deeply uncomfortable with negative interest rates. However, negative rates are the symptom and not the disease. China has positive interest rates because its domestic demand is strong. Europe or Japan are very sensitive to Chinese growth, which could cause the US rate advantage to evaporate. Ms. X: Earlier, you mentioned that the dollar is the perfect hedge for non-US based investors, which is a view I share. Are there any other currencies outside the dollar that we should hold that provide some safety? BCA: The currencies with the most upside against the dollar in 2021 are the European currencies, especially the Norwegian krone and the Swedish krona. They are the most undervalued currencies within the G-10, and they offer some margin of safety. While less attractive than the Scandinavian currencies, the pound will nonetheless appreciate more than the euro next year. Even if most currencies should gain against the USD, the yen is the one that will offer the most protective ability in a portfolio. It would be an excellent defensive complement to the dollar for investors looking to hedge portfolio risk. Gold will not perform effectively as a deflation hedge, but its ability to protect portfolios against long-term inflation risks remains intact. First, the yen is cheap. Over the years, falling Japanese price levels have tremendously improved the value of the yen. This cheapness makes Japanese equities an attractive investment, especially on an unhedged basis. These unhedged flows into Japan are very positive for the yen. Second, Japan offers the highest real interest rates in the G10. This attribute will incite investors to purchase JGBs. Moreover, Japanese investors could represent a major source of fixed-income flows into the country because of a large proportion of US Treasuries will mature, which will invite repatriation flows. Chart 57The Yen Likes A Weaker USD The Yen Likes A Weaker USD The Yen Likes A Weaker USD Finally, the yen is a low beta currency versus the USD. Both the DXY and the USD/JPY are positively correlated, thus when the dollar declines, the yen rises, but less so than other currencies (Chart 57). This means that when global equity markets enter risk-off phases, the yen appreciates against non-dollar currencies, but it loses less value against these same currencies when markets are rallying. This places the yen in a very enviable “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much” position, which is what we need out of a portfolio hedge.  Mr. X: I find it difficult to share your enthusiasm for the yen, but I agree that it is an interesting portfolio hedge. Nonetheless, my precious metals still provide me with a lot more comfort than any fiat currencies. Moving to commodities; it has been a remarkable year. Oil was crushed by the COVID-19 pandemic – more so than other commodities. Crude now appears to be attempting a comeback. Gold did well this year, but it recently dipped below $1,800/oz., and seems to be struggling to get back above that level. Let’s start with oil. Where do you see it going and how should we play it? BCA: Oil is about one principle: Supply and demand have to clear the market. Even more than with other commodities, the COVID-19 pandemic clobbered oil demand, especially those segments of the market tied to transportation, such as motor fuels (gasoline and diesel fuel), jet and marine fuels. While the news around vaccines are encouraging, it will be months before these treatments are available on the massive scale required to revive transportation demand. Chart 58Crude Forecasts Crude Forecasts Crude Forecasts Ms. X: Are you saying the oil prices will remain depressed in 2021?   BCA: Not really. We expect demand to recover following local – as opposed to national – lockdowns in the US and Europe. This process will become evident even before the vaccines have been rolled out on a large-enough scale to affect transportation demand. The impact on energy demand of the vaccines themselves should become visible toward the end of the first half of 2021.  On the supply side, we believe the producer coalition lead by Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to adjust supply to meet demand. Hence, global oil inventories will fall further, which will tighten the market. Based on these supply/demand dynamics, Brent crude-oil prices will average $63/bbl next year, which is above the forward curve in oil markets (Chart 58). Mr. X: Oil-market risk seems very difficult to pin down right now. Do you expect downside or upside risks to dominate prices next year? BCA: At the current juncture, risks to the oil market are exceptionally two-sided. On the downside, with the exception of China, most major economies have been unable to control the rapid spread of COVID-19. If the health crisis lingers, oil demand could remain weaker than our base case anticipates. On the upside, Big Pharma has acted with unprecedented speed in developing vaccines to combat this coronavirus. Netting all these forces out, the balance of risks, in our view, favors the upside, as our price forecast indicates. Mr. X: Thank you. I would like to move on to gold. You mentioned that the dollar was your favourite hedge against equity risk for non-US based investors. As I mentioned earlier, I tend to prefer gold. BCA: Gold and the US dollar are both safe-haven assets; when risk aversion and uncertainty increase, investors buy both these assets to hedge their portfolios. Typically, a weaker dollar is good for gold, and vice versa. The past four or five years have been extraordinarily uncertain – trade wars, political uncertainty, the global rise of nationalist populism, the COVID-19 pandemic, you name it. All of these factors drove investors to hold dollars and gold at the same time.  While the bullish dollar forces are dissipating, we cannot say the same for gold. The Fed is committed to maintaining an ultra-accommodative monetary policy indefinitely, which, along with the US government’s ever-expanding budget deficits, will keep the supply of money and credit extremely high for years. As we already argued, this policy setup will have a positive impact on inflation expectations. On the geopolitical front, even if the Sino-US tensions become less acute in the near-term, an undercurrent of distrust and rivalry will prevail. This combination will let bullion prices reach $2,000/oz. next year. Despite these positive fundamentals, gold will not hedge portfolios well against temporary deflationary shocks. Stuck at their lower bound, interest rates cannot decline any more. Consequently, negative growth shocks weigh on inflation expectations, which lifts real interest rate and the dollar, albeit briefly. This process is bearish for gold. Thus, gold will not perform effectively as a deflation hedge, but its ability to protect portfolios against long-term inflation risks remains intact. Mr. X: Thank you. Any other natural resource you would highlight for 2021? BCA: In our research, we heavily focus on the evolution of the global economy toward a low-carbon regime. Hence, we have opened up a whole line of investigation on CO2 markets, particularly in the EU, which is the largest such venue in the world. We are expecting it to become a leading indicator of global efforts to price carbon going forward.  On a related note, we are very interested in the buildout and modernization of China’s electric grid as it embarks on its 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021. Similar efforts are arising globally. We think this will be very important for base metals prices, particularly copper and aluminium. Geopolitics Mr. X: Before we conclude, let us talk about global geopolitical risks. The past two years were replete with tensions, many stocked by the Trump administration. Does a change of leadership in the US will fundamentally alter global relations, especially between the US and China?   Chart 59Peak US Polarization Peak US Polarization Peak US Polarization BCA: The fundamental geopolitical dynamic at the outset of the 2020s is the division of the United States and the rise of China.   The sharp increase in US political polarization began with the decline of a common enemy, the Soviet Union, in the 1980s. Pro-growth policies that widened the wealth gap, and a series of political, military, economic, and financial shocks in the twenty-first century, drove polarization to levels not witnessed since the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The anti-establishment Trump administration marked the latest peak in polarization (Chart 59). Now, in 2020, the Democratic Party-led political establishment has reclaimed the White House, but only narrowly. The popular vote was roughly evenly divided (47% to 51%) and the Republicans have likely retained the Senate. Because the popular vote and Electoral College vote are now aligned, and because Biden looks limited to center-left policies, polarization is likely to come off its highs. But it will remain elevated due to gridlock in Congress and persistent socio-economic disparities. President Xi Jinping’s “New Era” has led to a backlash from foreign powers. Polarization is globally relevant because it increases uncertainty over the US’s role in the world, particularly on fiscal policy and foreign policy. At home, gridlock produces periodic budget crises that weigh on global risk appetite. Abroad, partisanship causes new presidents to reverse the foreign policies of their predecessors (see President Obama on Iraq and President Trump on Iran). These dramatic reversals increase global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk (Chart 60). Chart 60A Bull Market In Policy Uncertainty A Bull Market In Policy Uncertainty A Bull Market In Policy Uncertainty As the US descended into internal partisan conflict, China expanded its global influence. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Communist Party was forced to change its national strategy to better handle demographic decline, structural economic transition, rising social ills, and foreign protectionism. Slower trend growth increases long-term risks to single-party rule, forcing the CCP to shift the basis of its legitimacy from rapid income growth to Chinese nationalism. Hence Beijing has aggressively sought a technological “Great Leap Forward” to improve productivity while adopting a much more assertive foreign policy to build a sphere of influence in Asia Pacific. President Xi Jinping’s “New Era” has led to a backlash from foreign powers, most markedly with COVID-19 but also with the removal of Hong Kong’s autonomy, saber-rattling in neighboring seas, and politically motivated boycotts of neighboring countries like Australia. The sharp decline in China’s international image has occurred despite the damage that President Trump did to America’s image at the same time (Chart 61). The Xi administration is not likely to change course anytime soon as it seeks to consolidate power even further ahead of the critical 2022 leadership transition. Chart 61A Broadening Distrust Of China OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World American polarization and Chinese nationalism are a dangerous combination. China is increasingly fearful of US containment policy and is adopting a new five-year plan built on accelerating its quest for economic self-sufficiency and technological leadership. The US is fearful of China as the first peer competitor that it has faced since the Soviet Union, and one of the few sources of national unity is the bipartisan agenda of confronting China over its illiberal policies. The Biden administration will mark the third US presidency in a row whose foreign policy will be preoccupied with how to handle Beijing. With Biden likely facing gridlock at home, and likely a one-term president due to old age, his administration will largely amount to restoring the Obama administration’s policies. Internationally, this means an attempt to rejoin or renegotiate the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015 so that the US can reduce its involvement in the Middle East and pivot to Asia. Assuming that any American or Israeli action against Iran in the waning days of the Trump administration is limited, Biden will probably achieve a temporary solution with Iran, which otherwise faces economic collapse just ahead of a critical presidential election and eventual succession of the supreme leader. But the process could involve force or the threat of force before a solution is reached, and this would temporarily trouble markets. The greatest geopolitical opportunity in 2021 lies in Europe. Biden will also seek to re-engage China to manage the dangerous rise in tensions, while making amends with US allies for Trump’s “America First” approach. There is already a tension between Biden’s commitment to multilateralism and his need to get things done. The Trump tariffs are viewed as illegal according to the WTO but give Biden leverage over China. Biden is forced to confront China and Russia over their authoritarian actions, but he also needs their assistance on Iran and North Korea. Meanwhile unforeseen crises will emerge, likely in emerging markets badly shaken by this year’s deep recession. Chart 62The Taiwan Strait Is The Top Geopolitical Risk In 2021 OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World The greatest geopolitical risk in 2021 lies in the Taiwan Strait. If China becomes convinced that Biden is not attempting a real diplomatic reset, but is instead pursuing a full-fledged containment policy and technological blockade, then it will be increasingly aggressive over rising Taiwanese pro-independence sentiment (Chart 62). A fourth Taiwan Strait crisis is still possible and would have a cataclysmic impact on markets. But Biden will start by trying to lower tensions with Beijing, which is positive for global equity markets until otherwise indicated. China’s long-run strategy has paid off in Hong Kong so it will likely think long-term on Taiwanese matters as well. Ms. X: In your opinion, which region will experience the greatest geopolitical tailwind next year? The greatest geopolitical opportunity in 2021 lies in Europe. The UK will likely be forced to accept a trade deal with the EU for the sake of the economy and internal unity with Scotland. Meanwhile Trump will not be able to impose sweeping unilateral tariffs on Europe and his maximum pressure policy on Iran will dissipate, reducing the risk of a major war in the Middle East. Germany’s transition from the era of Chancellor Angela Merkel will bring debates and concerns, but Germany is fundamentally stable and its agreement with France to upgrade European solidarity puts a lid on Italian political risk as well (Chart 63). Russia remains aggressive, but it is increasingly worried about domestic stability, and now faces an onslaught of democracy promotion from the Biden administration. Chart 63EU Solidarity Is The Top Geopolitical Opportunity In 2021 EU Solidarity Is The Top Geopolitical Opportunity In 2021 EU Solidarity Is The Top Geopolitical Opportunity In 2021 Investors are rightly optimistic about 2021 because of the vaccine for COVID-19 are the reduction in global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk as a result of the change in the White House. But a lot of optimism is being priced as we go to press, whereas the US-China and US-Russia rivalries have gotten consistently more dangerous since 2008. While geopolitical risk is abating from the extreme peaks of 2019-20, it will remain elevated in 2021 and the years after.     Conclusions Mr. X: This is a good place to conclude our discussion. We have covered a lot of ground but I remain deeply concerned. On the one hand, the global reflationary policies  forced through the system this year remains positive for risk assets. On the other, valuations of both stocks and bonds are uncomfortably stretched for my taste. Moreover, the pandemic is still not under control and while the news on the vaccine front is encouraging, the economy still has ample room to negatively surprise next year. Furthermore, I find the long-term picture particularly concerning, especially if inflation and populism rear their ugly heads. As a result, while I feel like I must be invested in equities rights now, I prefer to slant my portfolio toward value stocks and to keep generous holdings of cash and gold to protect myself. Ms. X: I agree with my father that the uncertain nature of the evolution of the pandemic, especially when contrasted with the demanding valuations of equities, creates many risks for investors. Nonetheless, I do not expect inflation to come back anytime soon. Thus, monetary policy will not become a threat in the near future. Moreover, I am quite optimistic on the earnings outlook. Accordingly, I am more comfortable than my father is with taking some risk in our portfolio this year, even if a slightly larger-than-normal allocation to cash and gold is reasonable. Unlike the BCA team, I believe growth stocks, not value stocks, will generate excess returns from equities in the coming years. Thus, I favor US markets and I am less negative on the US dollar than you are. BCA: Your family debate mirrors our own internal discussions. There is always a trade-off between maximizing short-term returns and taking a longer-term approach to investing. Nonetheless, many assets have become more expensive this year and long-term inflation risks are increasing. Thus, real long-term returns are likely to be uninspiring compared to recent history. Table 4 shows our baseline calculations of what a balanced portfolio will earn over the coming decade. We estimate that such a portfolio will deliver average annual returns of 4.0% over the next ten years, or 1.0% after adjusting for inflation. That is a deterioration from our inflation-adjusted estimate of 2.4% from last year, and also still well below the 6.1% real return that a balanced portfolio earned between 1990 and 2020. Table 4Lower Long-Term Returns OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World OUTLOOK 2021: A Brave New World The uncertainty around the base case scenario for the global economy and asset markets remains very large. Hence, as we did last year, we recommend a list of guideposts to evaluate whether global markets stay on track to generate gains in 2021: The rollout of the vaccines: Much of the outlook will depend on the global health crisis. As the recent weeks have shown, the subsequent waves of COVID-19 are still debilitating and deadly, even if recent lockdowns are not as stringent as in the spring. Thus, if the vaccines take longer to be distributed, the economy will suffer a greater risk of relapse, which will hurt asset prices. Realized and expected inflation: If both realized and expected inflation rise quickly, the market will price in a faster withdrawal of monetary accommodation. The market is too expensive to withstand this shock, which would prove more painful than another wave of lockdowns. A stronger dollar and a flattening yield curve: If these two phenomena develop in tandem, this will indicate that the global economy is suffering another deflationary shock. Because fiscal and monetary authorities remain on guard, this may not force any meaningful equity correction. However, growth stocks and defensive names will outperform the rest of the market. US diplomacy: Starting January 20, a new president will occupy the Oval Office. Markets have rejoiced at the anticipation of a more conciliatory approach by the US toward its allies and commercial partners. If the US proves colder than expected, markets will have to reprice their optimistic take on global relations. Bank health: We expect sour commercial real estate loans to create limited damage to the banking system. If we are wrong, credit standards will tighten further instead of easing. This would be a bad omen for global demand and would suggest that yields have downside and that growth stocks would beat value stocks. Fiscal policy: We expect fiscal policy to remain accommodative next year, even if less so than in 2020. An absence of a deal in Washington and a quicker return to fiscal rectitude in the rest of the world would mean that global growth will be weaker than we expect. This would impact equities negatively, especially value stocks. Ms. X: Thank you for this list of variables to monitor. As always, you have left us with much to think about. We look forward to these discussions every year. Before we conclude, it would be helpful to have a recap of your key views. BCA: It would be our pleasure. The key points are as follows: In 2021, stocks will outperform bonds thanks to the global economic recovery, the lack of immediate inflationary pressures and the prospects of a resolution to the pandemic. Imbalances in the global economy are growing, and the explosion in debt loads witnessed this year will carry significant future costs. Rising inflation is the most likely long-term consequence because of rising populism and the meaningful chance of financial repression. This change in inflation dynamics will generate poor long-term returns for a 60/40 portfolio, especially because asset valuations are so expensive. Compared to the past two years, geopolitical uncertainty will recede in 2021, but will remain elevated by historical standards. China and the US are interlocked in a structural rivalry, which means that flashpoints, such as Taiwanese independence, will remain a source of tensions. Europe will enjoy geopolitical tailwinds next year. For now, no central bank or government wants to remove economic support too quickly. Monetary policy will remain very stimulative as long as inflation is low, which means no tightening until late 2022, at the earliest. Fiscal deficits will narrow, but more slowly than private savings will decline. The US will grow faster than potential thanks to this policy backdrop. Moreover, household finances are robust and industrial firms are taking advantage of low interest rates as well as surprisingly resilient goods demand to increase their capex plans. Outside of the US, China’s stimulus and an inventory restocking will fuel a continued upswing in the global industrial cycle that will push 2021 GDP growth well above trend. However, at the beginning of the year, we will likely feel the remnants of the lockdowns currently engulfing Western economies. The uncertainty around the base case scenario for the global economy and asset markets remains very large. Bond yields can rise next year, but not by much. Ebbing deflationary pressures and the global industrial cycle upswing will lift T-Note and T-Bond yields. However, the extremely low probability of monetary tightening in 2021 and 2022 will create a ceiling for yields. We favor peripheral European bonds at the expense of German Bunds and US Treasuries. Corporate spreads should stay contained thanks to a very easy policy backdrop and the positive impact on cash flows and defaults of the ongoing recovery. We also like municipal bonds but worry about pre-payment risks for MBS.   Global stocks should enjoy a robust advance in 2021, even if the market’s gains will be smaller and more volatile than from March 2020 to today. Easy monetary conditions will buttress valuations while recovering economic activity will support earning expectations. Within equities, we favor cyclical versus defensive names and value stocks relative to growth stocks. As a corollary, we prefer small cap to large cap and foreign DM-equities to US equities. We are neutral on EM equities due to their large tech sector weighting. The dollar bear market is set to continue, and high-beta European currencies will benefit most. The yen remains an attractive portfolio hedge. Oil and gold have upside next year. Crude will benefit from both supply-side discipline and a recovery in oil demand. Gold will strengthen as global central banks will maintain extremely accommodative conditions and global fiscal authorities will remain generous. A weaker dollar will flatter both commodities. A balanced portfolio is likely to generate average returns of only 1.0% a year in real terms over the next decade. This compares to average returns of around 6.1% a year between 1990 and 2020. We sincerely hope that next year, we will get to see each other in person instead of via computer screens. Finally, we would like to take this opportunity to wish you and all of our clients a very peaceful, healthy and prosperous New Year. The Editors November 30, 2020   Footnotes 1  The tickers of the stocks in the “back to work” basket are: LUV, DAL, MAR, HLT, CVX, EOG, SBUX, MCD, CAT, HON, AXP, COF, NUE, GM. 2  The tickers of the stocks in the “COVID-19 winners” basket are: TDOC, FCN, ZM, CTXS, JNJ, AMGN, REGN, CLX, RBGLY, WMT, COST, KR, NFLX, AMZN.

Highlights Prices of global major commodities such as copper and iron ore have rallied significantly this year. It seems that strong Chinese imports once again became the major driving force for both commodities. Is the rally in commodity prices sustainable in 2021? This is the first of three reports focusing on copper, iron ore, and energy. In this week’s report, our views on copper are highlighted below: Chinese imports of copper have substantially outpaced Chinese underlying copper consumption this year, resulting in considerable inventory accumulation. Destocking and underlying demand weakness in 2021 suggest that China’s copper imports are likely to decline next year.  In the meantime, the global refined copper supply will grow at 1.5-2.5% in 2021 from 2020. Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside next year. Short December 2021 LME copper futures.  Feature China’s total demand and imports have surged by 23% and 62% year on year, respectively, in the last six months (Charts 1A and 1B). Both growth rates were the fastest they have been since 2010 (Chart 2). Chart 1AWill Chinese Total Copper Demand Surge Into 2021? Will Chinese Total Copper Demand Surge Into 2021? Will Chinese Total Copper Demand Surge Into 2021? Chart 1BWill Chinese Copper Imports Surge Into 2021? Will Chinese Copper Imports Surge Into 2021? Will Chinese Copper Imports Surge Into 2021? Please note throughout of this report, total demand is defined as the formula below: Total demand = underlying consumption1 + change in inventories Solely due to the surging total demand from China, global copper demand rose by 5% year on year so far this year (Chart 3). China’s total copper demand accounted for 58.4% of global copper demand for the first nine months of this year, increasing from a 53.6% share last year. Chart 2Unusual Strong Growth In Chinese Total Copper Demand And Imports Unusual Strong Growth In Chinese Total Copper Demand And Imports Unusual Strong Growth In Chinese Total Copper Demand And Imports Chart 3China Alone Has Pushed Up Global Copper Demand This Year China Alone Has Pushed Up Global Copper Demand This Year China Alone Has Pushed Up Global Copper Demand This Year In the meantime, global copper ore and refined copper outputs were curbed by the pandemic. As a result, the global copper market balance2 swung from a small surplus in March to a record high deficit in September (Chart 4). However, based on our estimates, China’s total demand for copper this year has meaningfully outpaced its underlying consumption, implying there has been substantial inventory buildup in the country. As a result, China’s strong copper imports will not continue into 2021. Moreover, global copper output is set to increase in 2021, adding further downward pressure on copper prices next year. Chart 4Global Copper Market Balance Has Swung From A Small Surplus To A High Deficit Global Copper Market Balance Has Swung From A Small Surplus To A High Deficit Global Copper Market Balance Has Swung From A Small Surplus To A High Deficit Chart 5China's Total Copper Demand: A Big Deviation From Its Long-Term Underlying Consumption Growth China's Total Copper Demand: A Big Deviation From Its Long-Term Underlying Consumption Growth China's Total Copper Demand: A Big Deviation From Its Long-Term Underlying Consumption Growth Understanding Strong Chinese Copper Demand In 2020 For the past five years, the annual increase in China’s total copper demand grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.5%, reflecting the country’s long-term underlying copper usage growth (Chart 5). However, China’s total copper demand (consumption plus change in inventories) has increased by 18.4% year on year for the first nine months of this year. This surge in total demand has significantly outpaced its long-term underlying consumption growth. Our research shows that slightly more than half of China’s total copper demand growth so far this year can be attributable to a solid underlying consumption rebound boosted by the stimulus. The government’s strategic purchases and commercial restocking may have contributed to the other half of the country’s total copper demand growth. Copper Consumption By Real Economy Chart 6The Structure Of China’s Underlying Copper Consumption In 2019 Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper The structure of China’s underlying copper consumption in 2019 stemmed from the following industries and sectors: power (about 49% of Chinese copper usage); refrigeration and air conditioning (15%); transportation (10%); electronic communication (9%); buildings and construction (8%); and others (Chart 6). Table 1 shows our rough estimations of the copper consumption growth in each sector in 2020, respectively. Based on this, we concluded that China’s underlying copper consumption might grow by approximately 10% this year. Table 1Chinese Underlying Copper Consumption Year-On-Year Growth Estimates For 2020 Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper Chart 7Copper Consumption In The Power Industry Has Been Strong Copper Consumption In The Power Industry Has Been Strong Copper Consumption In The Power Industry Has Been Strong The power sector is the largest copper user as copper is among the best conductors of electricity and heat. The metal is used in high, medium and low voltage power networks. Following the pandemic, China significantly boosted investment in the power sector by 17% (year to date, January - October) from the same period last year (Chart 7). The power generation equipment output has surged by 28.7% year on year during the same period, while the electrical cable output increased only slightly. All together, we estimated that the copper consumption from the power sector grew by approximately 16% from last year. While air conditioner output declined moderately from 2019, freezer and refrigerator production has gone up significantly this year (Chart 8). The global “stay-at-home” economy due to the pandemic boosted Chinese exports of freezers and refrigerators.  Considering air conditioner copper usage per unit is generally higher than that in freezers/refrigerators, we assumed this year’s copper consumption in the home appliance sector to be up by 6% from the previous year. Despite a recent sharp rebound in transportation investment and automobile output, in the first ten months of this year the transportation investment grew by only 2% year on year while automobile output still contracted by 4% from the previous year (Chart 9). Hence, we assumed a 2% year-on-year contraction of copper usage in this sector this year.3 Chart 8Moderate Growth In Copper Usage In The Home Appliance Sector Moderate Growth In Copper Usage In The Home Appliance Sector Moderate Growth In Copper Usage In The Home Appliance Sector Chart 9Contracted Automobile Output May Have Reduced Copper Consumption In The Transportation Sector Contracted Automobile Output May Have Reduced Copper Consumption In The Transportation Sector Contracted Automobile Output May Have Reduced Copper Consumption In The Transportation Sector Copper or copper-base alloys are used in printed circuit boards, in electronic connectors, as well as in many semiconductor products. This year, China had set a strategic goal to develop the tech-related new infrastructure, which includes information transmission, software and information technology services, such as 5G networks, industrial internet, and data centers. The tech-related new infrastructure investment has increased by 20% year on year during January - October (Chart 10). We expect the year-on-year copper usage growth in this sector to be 20% this year as well.   The buildings and construction sector accounts for 8% of China’s copper usage. During the first nine months of this year, our broad measure of China’s building construction activity—specifically building area starts and completions—have contracted 3.2% and 9.6% year on year, respectively (Chart 11). Assuming half of this sector’s usage is in building area starts and the other half in completions, we expect the copper consumption in this sector to contract by 6% year on year this year. Chart 10Copper Usage Rising Due To Strong Tech-Related New Infrastructure Investment Copper Usage Rising Due To Strong Tech-Related New Infrastructure Investment Copper Usage Rising Due To Strong Tech-Related New Infrastructure Investment Chart 11Weak Property Market May Have Also Cut Copper Consumption In The Construction Sector Weak Property Market May Have Also Cut Copper Consumption In The Construction Sector Weak Property Market May Have Also Cut Copper Consumption In The Construction Sector Altogether, our calculation shows that the Chinese underlying copper consumption growth for the full 2020 year is likely to be up 10% from last year. Copper Restocking Although the most tracked official data does not show a significant pileup in copper inventories in China, our research indicates that the Chinese government’s strategic and enterprises’ speculative restocking might have accounted for nearly half of China’s total copper demand growth this year. Chinese total copper demand (consumption plus change in inventories) was approximately 9,120 thousand metric tons (kt) during last January - September.4 A 10% growth from this number will equal an increase of 912 kt, still 770 kt (or 46%) short of the total increased amount of 1,678 kt year on year in Chinese total copper demand. First, of the 770-kt gap between China’s total demand and our estimated underlying consumption, we believe that about 200-400 kt of copper—about 4%-8% of Chinese copper imports in the first nine months of this year—were purchased by the Chinese government.5 Many market analysts have been suspecting that China’s State Reserve Board (SRB) has been buying copper this year, as there was no way Chinese underlying consumption could grow as strong as what its total demand and imports suggested. Historically, the SRB bought copper whenever prices declined significantly, and stopped or reduced its purchases when prices had a significant rally. For example, many believe that the SRB bought 200-400 kt in 2008,6 200-500 kt in 2014,7 and 200 kt in 2015,8 when prices dropped considerably. Copper prices have been trading well below US$3 per pound for most of the year, and the Chinese currency has been strengthening. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the SRB purchased at least a similar amount as in previous cycles to strategically stock up on cheap commodities. Second, Chinese enterprises may have bought 370-570 kt of copper this year.9 Easy money and abundant credit with lower borrowing costs have probably allowed some Chinese enterprises to accumulate copper inventories, representing financial speculative demand (with a motive of selling at higher prices) and/or inventories to be used in future. Chart 12The SHFE Copper Warehouse: No Inventory Accumulation Based On This Measure The SHFE Copper Warehouse: No Inventory Accumulation Based On This Measure The SHFE Copper Warehouse: No Inventory Accumulation Based On This Measure The most often tracked China copper inventory data by market analysts is the copper inventory at Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), which has been highly volatile this year. Its current level is near its level at the end of last year (Chart 12). This means no inventory accumulation in the SHFE copper warehouse. This also implies that Chinese companies may have restocked their copper inventories in their own warehouses, for which no official data can be tracked.  Bottom Line: Chinese underlying consumption accounts for slightly more than half of the increase in the country’s total copper demand this year, whereas the government’s strategic purchases and commercial restocking have most likely contributed to the other half. China’s Copper Demand Boom Is Unsustainable This year’s surging total demand for copper in China was due to the stimulus as a result of the pandemic, as well as government and commercial copper restocking. Looking forward in 2021, these driving forces will either diminish or disappear. First, China’s copper restocking will be followed by destocking. With copper prices having risen by 57% from their trough in March, and now well above US$3 per pound, odds are that the SRB and commercial buyers that have been accumulating copper inventories will considerably reduce their copper purchases next year. Moreover, as China’s financial regulations have become stricter and the monetary stance more hawkish of late, we expect Chinese enterprises will largely refrain from speculative activities in the commodity market next year.  Second, the country’s underlying copper consumption growth will likely drop considerably to the range of -3% to zero next year (Table 2). Table 2Chinese Underlying Copper Consumption Year-on-Year Growth Estimates For 2021 Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper As government stimulus will likely be scaled back substantially next year, infrastructure investment in the power sector will fall from the current level. In 2019, the year-on-year growth of power investment, power generation equipment, and electrical cable output was -0.2%, -15% and 3.3%, respectively. We expect the level of Chinese investment in the power sector to normalize to its long-term trend next year from this year’s substantial increase. Therefore, we estimate a 5%-8% contraction in this sector’s copper consumption next year. Next year’s government-targeted stimulus in the consumption segment may provide a boost in output of home appliances, albeit a modest one. In addition, global demand for freezers and refrigerators due to the pandemic may diminish, as global supply chains as well as production from pandemic-struck countries will likely recover next year. Hence, we expect the copper usage growth in the “refrigeration and air conditioning” sector will drop to a 0-2% year-on-year growth in 2021 from this year’s 6% growth. For copper usage in the transportation sector, we expect a 3%-5% growth next year as the automobile sector will likely continue to recover, and transportation infrastructure investment may also increase slightly due to the government’s effort to expand its electric car charging infrastructure. We expect the investment in the tech-related new infrastructure to increase by 12%-15%, which will be a drop from this year’s sharp growth of 20%.  The copper usage in the buildings and construction sector is likely to continue until the fall of next year. However, as property developers need to complete their existing projects, copper consumption in this sector may decline by 2%-4%, smaller than this year’s 6% contraction. All together, we conclude that the underlying Chinese copper consumption will likely contract by 0-3% next year from 2020. Bottom Line: China’s underlying copper consumption is likely to contract slightly next year, which will weigh on the country’s copper imports. Additionally, as China had accumulated considerable copper inventories this year, the country’s destocking will also depress its copper imports next year. More Global Copper Supply In 2021 Chart 13Global Copper Ore And Refined Copper Supply Are Set To Increase In 2021 Global Copper Ore And Refined Copper Supply Are Set To Increase In 2021 Global Copper Ore And Refined Copper Supply Are Set To Increase In 2021 Global supply of both copper ore and refined copper outside China will go up next year, by about 3-5% in 2021, a sharp contrast with the declines of 2.2% and 3.2% year on year, respectively, for the first nine months of this year (Chart 13). Table 3 shows the world’s top 10 copper producing companies’ capex this year and in 2021. Most of these companies slashed their capex this year due to the pandemic. However, the capex of all these companies will likely be much higher in 2021, which will facilitate copper output growth. The companies that will increase their capex in 2021 are largely outside China. The aggregate capex for the world’s top 10 copper producing companies will increase by nearly 20% year on year in 2021. Some mining giants such as BHP and Rio Tinto produce many other commodities rather than copper, so only part of their investment will go to copper-related assets/operations. For companies with a significant amount of revenue coming from copper, such as Codelco, Glencore, Southern Copper, KGHM, and Antofagasta, all will have more than 20% growth in their 2021 capex. Table 3The World’s Top 10 Copper Producing Companies’ Capex Investment In 2020 & 2021 Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper Chinese Commodities Demand: An Unsustainable Boom? Part I: Copper As these companies account for about half of the global copper production, we believe the 20% increase in their aggregate capex will likely result in a 3%-5% increase in their copper ore and refined copper outputs. China’s copper production growth rate is expected to accelerate within the next few years, mainly driven by the construction of Tibet's Qulong copper mine, the second phase expansion of Duobaoshan, the second phase of the Jiama copper mine, and the Chifeng Fubo project. China is currently the world’s third-largest copper ore producer, accounting for 9% of the global copper ore supply. The country is also the world’s largest refined copper producer, contributing 43% of global refined copper production. After having managed to add a 430-kt smelting capacity and a 640-kt refining capacity this year, the country plans to increase its new smelting capacity of 525 kt and new refinery capacity of 110 kt in 2021, most of which will need copper ore and concentrates. If the 110-kt new refinery capacity is fully utilized, it will increase global refined copper output by about 0.5% next year. Chart 14China: Rising Imports Of Copper Ore Will Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports China: Rising Imports Of Copper Ore Will Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports China: Rising Imports Of Copper Ore Will Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports This year, due to constrained copper ore supply outside China, Chinese copper ore imports only increased 2% year on year during January - September. This has also prompted Chinese refined copper imports. In 2021, rising imports of copper ore by China will likely boost the country’s domestic production of refined copper and reduce imports (Chart 14). In addition, the significant increase in Chinese refined copper imports this year was partially due to the substitution effect of the shortage in global copper scrap supply. This is likely to change. We expect global secondary copper production—refined copper produced from scrap copper—to rise next year from the current level. Global secondary copper output accounts for 17% of global total refined copper supply. The pandemic-triggered lockdowns disrupted the global scrap copper supply chains, including collection, processing, and transportation. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global secondary refined copper production is expected to decline by 5.5% year on year this year due to a shortage of scrap metal in many regions. This is likely to reverse next year, as fewer countries will force complete lockdowns. Chart 15China: Rising Imports Of Scrap Copper Will Also Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports China: Rising Imports Of Scrap Copper Will Also Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports China: Rising Imports Of Scrap Copper Will Also Likely Reduce Its Refined Copper Imports Also, in order to reduce domestic pollution, starting from the second half of 2019, China has moved the metal scraps10 from the non-restricted category to the restricted category. As a result, importing copper scrap into China requires approval, and the number of approvals is strictly controlled. This had resulted in a sharp drop in the amount of imported copper scrap (Chart 15). China’s imported volumes of copper scrap plunged 38% year on year in 2019 and will likely fall further this year.  Next year, the newly implemented "Solid Waste Pollution Prevention and Control Law" will allow China to import high-quality copper scrap. This will also reduce the country’s need to import refined copper from overseas. Bottom Line: Both rising global ore output and recovering global secondary copper supply will increase the global refined copper supply next year. China will likely boost its imports of ore and high-quality scrap copper while considerably reducing its imports of refined copper. This will be negative to global refined copper prices. Investment Implications Chart 16Net Speculative Positions Of Copper Are At A Multi-Year High Net Speculative Positions Of Copper Are At A Multi-Year High Net Speculative Positions Of Copper Are At A Multi-Year High Fundamentally, China’s contracting underlying copper consumption and destocking, as well as the rising global refined copper supply, are all set to create a bearish backdrop for copper prices in 2021. Meanwhile, net speculative positions of copper in the US as a share of total open interest have risen to a multi-year high (Chart 16). This is a bearish technical signal for copper prices. In addition, LME warehouse copper inventories rebounded recently, which may also be a sign of easing supply bottlenecks and slower market demand (Chart 17). To conclude, copper prices are vulnerable to the downside next year. Short December 2021 LME copper futures outright (Chart 18). We expect a 10%-15% downside in copper prices next year from the current level. Chart 17Rebounding LME Copper Inventories: A Sign Of Easing Supply Bottlenecks And Slower Demand? Rebounding LME Copper Inventories: A Sign Of Easing Supply Bottlenecks And Slower Demand? Rebounding LME Copper Inventories: A Sign Of Easing Supply Bottlenecks And Slower Demand? Chart 18Short December 2021 LME Copper Futures Outright Short December 2021 LME Copper Futures Outright Short December 2021 LME Copper Futures Outright   Ellen JingYuan He Associate Vice President ellenj@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1 Underlying consumption is defined as the usage of copper in the real economy and excludes changes in inventories. 2Market balance measured as refined copper total demand minus refined copper production. The market balance is in deficit if total demand exceeds production and it is in surplus if total demand falls short of production. 3Transportation investment is for the transportation infrastructure sector. Here we assumed the copper usage in the transportation sector is evenly divided between transportation infrastructure and automobile production in China. 4According to WBMS data, China’s total demand during last January - September 2019 was 9,120 kt. Since China’s total demand for copper last year was within the range of its long-term underlying consumption, our estimates for China’s real economy driven consumption in 2020 are based on this number. 5Precise numbers are not available, and these data represent our estimates. 6Please refer https://news.smm.cn/news/66571 7Please refer https://www.reuters.com/article/copper-reserve-source-buy-idCNCNEA3N02F20140424 8Please refer https://news.cnpowder.com.cn/31981.html 9We derived this estimate by deducting SRB’s 200-400 kt from the 770-kt gap. 10In early 2019, China announced plans to restrict imports of eight different scrap categories – including aluminum, steel and copper – starting July 1, 2019. Cyclical Investment Stance Equity Sector Recommendations

Highlights Iran is second only to China as a target for President Trump during his “lame duck” two months in office. There is plenty of spare capacity to absorb oil supply disruptions, however. President-Elect Biden will rejoin the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, but the process will be rocky and we are far from a balance of power in the Middle East. The impact on oil supply is positive but the recovery of global demand will push oil prices up over time regardless. Now is not the right time to go long Middle Eastern equities as a reflation trade. We favor the Trans-Pacific Partnership countries. Israeli stocks can continue outperforming Middle East bourses as a whole, but the rotation from growth to value stocks will benefit other bourses. Prefer the UAE to Turkey, where a large political risk premium will persist. Feature Dear Client, With the US election largely complete, this week marks the return to our regular coverage of global market-relevant political risks. Over the past several months we have focused heavily on every aspect of the US election. The effort was worth it: our final forecast of Democratic White House and a Republican Senate came to pass and our trade recommendations generally performed as expected. Nevertheless it is time to refresh and expand our views on other markets and topics. Geopolitical Strategy has always been – necessarily – a global service offering global coverage. Recent events in China, Europe, Russia, Turkey, and the Middle East demand greater attention – and clients have told us as much. Moreover, with promising vaccine candidates on the horizon, major questions are emerging about what the post-pandemic world will bring. To this end we are returning to our roots with weekly offerings on the full range of global affairs. This week we give you a Special Report on the future of the Middle East by one of BCA’s up-and-coming strategists, Roukaya Ibrahim. We know you will find her post-Trump outlook on the region insightful. As always, we look forward to hearing from you about your research needs and what we can do to answer your geopolitical and investment questions in a timely and actionable manner. Sincerely, Matt Gertken Vice President Geopolitical Strategy The Middle East is about to become a major source of geopolitical risk again. First, President Trump remains in office for two months and is rushing to cement his legacy on the way out. Second, President-Elect Joe Biden will likely face gridlock at home and therefore concentrate the first two years of his presidency on foreign policy. Iran is a priority for both presidents. Biden will rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump pulled out of in 2018. The purpose of the JCPA was to wind down the US war in Iraq and then “pivot” to Asia, where the US has a much greater interest at stake in managing China’s rise (Chart 1). Chart 1Biden To Restore Obama's 'Pivot To Asia' Biden To Restore Obama's 'Pivot To Asia' Biden To Restore Obama's 'Pivot To Asia' Chart 2Squint To See Iran ... US Will Focus On China Squint To See Iran ... US Will Focus On China Squint To See Iran ... US Will Focus On China China poses a major challenge to the US while Iran poses a minor challenge (Chart 2). Biden’s aim will be to restore President Obama’s legacy. Given that the US president has unilateral authority on foreign policy, and that the 2015 deal was an executive deal without Senate approval, Biden has a good chance of success. But conditions are much less propitious than in 2015. He will not improve on the terms of the 2015 deal. Any return to a nuclear agreement and deeper understanding with Iran should ultimately reduce tensions in the Middle East. But the pathway to a new regional power equilibrium is rocky. So geopolitical risk is frontloaded and will be a near-term negative factor for Middle Eastern equities, which otherwise stand to benefit from global economic recovery. Restoring Iranian oil exports will increase global oil supply but geopolitical conflict will occasionally reduce supply. As always Iraq, wedged between Iran and US allies, is the central battleground for the power struggle in the Middle East (Map 1). Over a six-to-twelve month time frame, the global economy should recover and oil prices should trend upward. Map 1The Persian Gulf Is Filled With Black Swan Risks The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Biden Looks To Withdraw Like Obama And Trump Chart 3Biden May Regulate, But US Stays Energy-Independent Biden May Regulate, But US Stays Energy-Independent Biden May Regulate, But US Stays Energy-Independent The US’s ascent toward energy self-sufficiency and its geopolitical decline vis-à-vis China have forced Washington to revise its foreign policy over the past decade, resulting in a strategic divestment from the Middle East (Chart 3). The “Pivot to Asia” is a strategic reality evident in the shift in US military commitments – and Trump has ordered new drawdowns on his way out of office. China’s increasing geopolitical pressure on Australia and rising saber-rattling in the Taiwan Strait highlights the need for the energy-independent US to attend to allies elsewhere. The American public’s view of the Middle East as a strategic quagmire is now producing its third presidency. Obama, Trump, and Biden have all pledged to end the country’s “forever wars” in various ways. The risk to this trend, ironically, was Trump’s aggressive policy on Iran. He revoked Obama’s signature diplomatic achievement and tried to squash Iran’s regional role through “maximum pressure” sanctions and occasional military strikes. He also reinforced US allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, rather than trying to rein them in as Obama had done. Biden’s victory implies that the US will once again favor diplomacy and détente with Iran. Although Iran may make a show of resistance to Biden’s overtures and raise its price so as not to appear to have capitulated to the US, it ultimately has little choice. Its economy is on its last legs, it faces widespread popular unrest, and its sphere of influence is crumbling. Hence constraints on both sides point to a restored nuclear deal. The first obstacle is immediate. President Trump’s “lame duck” period through January 20 is a window of opportunity for Israel or Saudi Arabia to make strategic gains while still enjoying full American support. We highlight the allies because they have much more to fear from Iranian power than the US, and more to lose if the Biden administration appeases Iran. The Trump administration has allegedly reviewed options to launch strikes against Iran since the election, but he has also allegedly ruled against them (as in June 2019). While Trump could still take some kind of action, he would likely face obstruction from the Department of Defense if he tried to do anything that would trigger a full-fledged war in his final two months. It falls to the allies then – or Iran – if conflict is to erupt in the near term. Obama, Trump, and Biden have all pledged to end the country’s "forever wars" in various ways. Cyber-attacks on Iranian nuclear sites this summer are a case in point (Table 1). Suspicious explosions, including at the preeminent Natanz nuclear site, were rumored to be the work of Israel and the United States and raised the specter of a military escalation. However, Iran stuck to its policy of “strategic patience,” hoping for a Biden win. Table 1US And Israel Suspected Of Sabotaging Iran This Year The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 It is possible that elements within the Iranian regime, such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), could launch attacks to deter further sabotage against their infrastructure and capabilities. The IRGC is focused on rigging the 2021 presidential election and ensuring its ascendancy within the Iranian state ahead of the 82 year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession, so it cannot be assumed to be quiet. The legacy of the outgoing President Rouhani – a relative moderate in Iran’s political scene – hinges on the success of the 2015 agreement, which he pledged would bring economic prosperity to Iran. The deal’s near-collapse has blighted this legacy and triggered a resurgence of hardliners in Iranian politics. This is clear from the February legislative elections in which hardliners won by a landslide (Chart 4). The hardening of the regime will continue, as Khamenei and the IRGC are increasingly focused on solidifying the regime’s security and authority prior to the succession. The next president will almost certainly be a hardliner reminiscent of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Oil price volatility should be expected, but over time the vaccine will secure the global economic recovery and oil prices will rise. Still, we assign low odds to Iran instigating a war or pulling out of the JCPA. The past two years have raised the specter of regime collapse. Khamenei is more likely to keep his eye on the prize: a diplomatic agreement with Biden that eases sanctions and thus enables the regime to live to fight another day. This would be his crowning achievement. The change in US leadership offers Tehran an excuse to renegotiate the 2015 deal and blame Trump as an idiosyncratic deviation from an agreement that lay in Iran’s interest. As long as Khamenei retains control of the IRGC this is our base case. Israel is limited in its ability to wage war against Iran alone, but it is not incapable of surgical strikes to set back the clock on the nuclear program, especially if the Trump administration is there to provide assistance in an exigency. The risk is not negligible. Trump’s former National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster has already warned that Israel could act on the “Begin Doctrine” of preemptive strikes against would-be nuclear powers in its neighborhood. While the near-term risk of conflict would remove oil supply, there is a simultaneous risk that cartel behavior would increase supply. Iran’s regional rivals have an interest in preventing a US-Iran deal, but they could not do so in 2015 and ultimately cannot do so today. Therefore they will seek to shore up their political strength in Iraq while undermining the Iranian economy. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing GCC states benefit from the maximum pressure sanctions that have wiped out Iranian crude exports. The collapse in oil markets is weighing heavily on these economies. An Iranian deal would bring an additional 1mm b/d – 1.5 mm b/d of crude to global markets in short order. Arab petro-states will not cut back on their own production to make room for Iranian crude. They may try to grab greater oil market share ahead of any surge in Iranian exports. In the current oil market environment, Iran has more to lose from the status quo than do its Arab rivals. While ongoing conflict would add to the multiple crises facing Arab oil producers, the risk to oil production is less relevant today than it was at the top of the business cycle. OPEC 2.0 production is ostensibly capped at 36.42 mm b/d but there is plenty of spare capacity to make up for conflict-induced losses (Chart 5). Chart 4Hardliners Roaring Back To Power In Iran The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Chart 5Plenty Of Spare Oil Production Capacity Plenty Of Spare Oil Production Capacity Plenty Of Spare Oil Production Capacity Bottom Line: Biden’s election ensures that he will try to revive the Iranian nuclear deal and pivot to Asia. While this is positive for Middle Eastern stability over the medium term, it comes with near-term risks. A “lame duck” President Trump or Israel could strike out against Iran. The Gulf Arabs will do what they can to undermine Iran as well. Oil price volatility should be expected, but over the long run the main tendency will be for the global economy to recover and hence for oil prices to rise. Iraq: A Persistent Source Of Instability Iraq is the fulcrum of the US-Iran conflict, as witnessed in January with the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani. Torn between Tehran and Riyadh, Baghdad remains in political crisis and is the chief battleground in the regional power struggle. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is still struggling to bring Iraq’s various militias, many backed by Iran, under the control of the state. The US embassy, military bases, and other interests have been under attack throughout the summer, prompting Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to threaten to withdraw the US embassy from Baghdad (Table 2). As in the past any escalation between Iran and the US will likely occur in Iraq. Table 2Iran Adopting Deterrence Strategy In Iraq The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Beyond Trump’s lame duck period, if Washington looks to normalize relations with Iran, then various Iraqi and Saudi forces will try to make sure that Iraq remains independent. Iraq is the critical strategic buffer zone for Saudi Arabia and it will use its leverage with Sunni forces inside Iraq to oppose Iranian domination and warn the US against giving too much to Iran. The problem for Iraq is that the US is divesting from the region and Biden will focus on the Iranian deal to the neglect of other issues. As a result the Saudis will escalate their influence campaign and Iraq will remain unstable. Bottom Line: Iraq is ground zero for the creation of a new regional power equilibrium. If the US manages to secure its allies, even while reviving the Iranian deal, then Iraq has a prospect of stabilization. But the insecurity of US allies will predominate so Iraq remains at risk of instability, militancy, and oil supply disruptions. A New Dawn? Unification to counter Iran is the chief motive behind the Abraham Peace Accords signed between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan with the Trump administration’s mediation (Table 3). Table 3The Abraham Accords Unify Iran’s Regional Rivals The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Although Israel and the UAE had already been cooperating and sharing intelligence, the deal creates a formal diplomatic partnership against Iran that the countries will need even more as the US pivots to Asia. From Washington’s perspective, the deal enables it to reduce its direct management of the region and delegate authority to its ally and partners. While Saudi Arabia did not sign a deal with Israel, it has signaled a change in strategy. Bahrain is ultimately a Saudi proxy and would not have signed the agreement without Riyadh’s blessing. Moreover, the decision to open Saudi airspace to Israeli airplanes highlights closer cooperation. Additional motives that helped seal the deal: President Trump sought a foreign policy win ahead of the election. The deal reflects his promise to withdraw from the Middle East. Having won 48% of the popular vote, Trump’s approach will loom large over the Republican Party. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hoped the deal would secure him a political win amid unpopularity at home. Israel was not even forced to accede to the UAE’s demand to halt the annexation of the West Bank: Netanyahu merely announced that annexation was postponed. And on October 14, only a month after the accords were signed, Israel approved new settler homes in the occupied West Bank. For the UAE, the deal requires little effort but is economically and militarily beneficial. It improves its chances of purchasing long-sought F-35 fighter jets from the US. It is also consequential that the UAE was the first to sign the deal. Abu Dhabi is seeking to raise its stature as a regional power. It has engaged in various Middle Eastern conflicts including in Libya and Yemen and is the only Arab state to have committed troops to Afghanistan for security and humanitarian missions. The UAE has also expanded its influence by being the top source of capex investments in the region (Chart 6). It has emerged as a model Arab state and seeks to replicate that success in its geopolitical status (Chart 7). Chart 6UAE The Top Mideast Investor The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Ultimately the Abraham Accords reflect a shift in Middle Eastern politics to address the US’s withdrawal and changing landscape. The deal’s signatories seek to improve ties not only to face Iran but also to face Turkey, Russia, and even China. Chart 7UAE Leads The Pack The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Opinion polls suggest that young Arabs’ favorable perception of the US are linked to its involvement in the region. Their perception of the US as an ally, or somewhat of an ally, increased post-2018 when President Trump initiated his maximum pressure campaign on Iran (Chart 8). Chart 8US Image Has Bottomed Among Arab Youth The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Abraham Accords are also significant in that they mark a departure from the Arab Peace Initiative. The Initiative conditions normalization of Arab relations with Israel on Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Golan Heights, and Lebanon. Until recently, this initiative was a hallmark of regional diplomacy. Palestinians of course have rejected the Abraham Accords and expressed dismay at what they perceive to be disloyalty. Their sidelining could result in an increase in radicalism and militant activity in Israel, though Biden’s election will now blunt that effect and put new demands on Israel. Similarly, Turkey and Qatar oppose the agreement. The rift will widen between the authoritarian states (the GCC and Egypt) and those in favor of political Islam (Turkey and Qatar). Unlike Israel’s previous peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, which did not result in any economic gains, bilateral economic cooperation is a cornerstone of the Abraham Accords (Table 4). Thus the agreement not only explicitly aligns geopolitical positions in the Middle East, it also weaves Israel into the region’s economies, generating gains for all sides and cementing the partnership. This is a positive example of Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. Table 4The Abraham Accords By Sector The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Bottom Line: The Abraham Accords reflect long-developing structural changes in the Middle East. With the US reducing its direct management in the region, Israel and the Arab states are drawing together – particularly in opposition to Iran. If Biden restores the Iranian nuclear deal, there may be a semblance of balance in the region. But its durability will depend on the uncertain willingness of the US to keep the peace. Great Power Struggle Instability stemming from Washington’s shift away from the Middle East is being exacerbated by the competition by great powers and middle powers over filling the power vacuum. Russian and Turkish interference has had mixed results. Both are exerting their influence through greater military engagement in Syria and Libya, in which they have partially stabilized these countries. For instance, Moscow’s 2015 decision to send its air force and some ground troops to Syria reversed President Bashar al-Assad’s fate in Syria, giving him new life. Similarly, Ankara’s increased involvement in the Libyan crisis earlier this year helped the Tripoli-based government drive General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army back to its eastern enclave. Chart 9AChina Pivots To Middle East China Pivots To Middle East China Pivots To Middle East Yet Russia’s commitment is deliberately limited and likely to become more limited due to increasing domestic political risks. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party has been in power for two decades, is showing economic and political weakness, and is overreaching in international conflicts. Therefore these countries’ interventions do not have a high degree of staying power or predictability. A more durable trend is China’s growing influence in the region. China’s approach emphasizes soft power rather than hard power, but the latter will gradually come into play. China’s main motive is to secure oil supplies. It has emerged as the top oil importer, 46% of which are sourced from the Middle East (Charts 9A and 9B). Chinese interest in the region is evident in its “Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships” (the highest of China’s diplomatic levels) with several key regional actors (Table 5).   Chart 9BChina’s Mideast Dependency Grows The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Rather than interfering in regional politics, China has favored economic cooperation. It has emerged as a top foreign investor in the Arab region (Chart 10 and see Chart 16 below). Table 5China Cultivates Mideast Relations The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Chart 10Awaiting Return Of Chinese Investment The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 This approach has been well received by the Arab population, at least the younger generations. The Arab youth see China the most favorably among all the competing foreign actors (Chart 11). Chart 11Arab Youth Have Positive Views Of China The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 However, China is also becoming more scrutinizing of its investments in the region. The Belt and Road Initiative is no longer just a blank check. Beijing’s investments are starting to pick up and will continue to revive as its economy recovers in the coming years, but Middle Eastern states will not be able to assume they have China’s unconditional support (Chart 12). Chart 12China's Investment Just Starting To Revive, At Best China's Investment Just Starting To Revive, At Best China's Investment Just Starting To Revive, At Best While China has improved relations with Saudi Arabia and the GCC during the Trump administration’s conflict with Iran, Biden raises the possibility of China reviving its interest in Iran, which is a key linchpin of its Belt and Road Initiative and other strategies of deepening economic relations across Eurasia. Gradually China will take a more obtrusive role. It built its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017. Moreover, the strategic pact with Iran it is negotiating, which is likely to be very large even if lower than the official price tag of $400 billion over 25 years, also includes military cooperation. If US-China tensions persist at today’s high levels, China will try to improve its supply security in the Middle East, which will eventually become another front in the new cold war. Bottom Line: The power vacuum left by the US’s reduced commitment to the region has not been filled by any of the major or middle powers. Russian, Chinese, and Turkish actions are unclear and in some cases contradictory. China has the potential to fill in some of the vacuum, but at the moment Chinese strategic involvement is nascent. Détente between the US and Iran clears the way for China to revive relations with Iran, a linchpin of its global, regional, and Eurasian strategy. Economic Progress … Interrupted While these cyclical and structural geopolitical shifts play out, Middle Eastern states also find themselves in a weak economic situation. The double whammy of pandemic and the collapse in oil prices is weighing on household, corporate, and government budgets. It is exposing long-standing vulnerabilities, unwinding recent progress, and introducing new challenges. Arab petro-states face a funding gap in the midst of economic contraction. With oil prices significantly below those needed to balance their budgets, they are re-prioritizing their spending (Chart 13). Chart 13Fiscal Squeeze Hits Arab Petro-States The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 While this adjustment has come at the expense of strategic economic plans, in some cases it has also led to an acceleration of fiscal reforms. Oman and Saudi Arabia are cases in point. Oman has been implementing a 5% value-added tax (VAT) since April and plans to impose taxes on high-income earners beginning 2022. Similarly, Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT from 5% to 15%, eliminated a bonus cost-of-living allowance previously granted to public sector employees, and increased custom duties for several imported goods. The immediate aim of these measures is to offset some of the weakness in oil revenues (Chart 14). But over the long run they align with the strategic objective of transitioning from resource-dependent rentier states to economically diverse ones. While the economic shock has weighed on both household and government budgets, the GCC oil producers generally enjoy low debt-to-GDP ratios and comfortable government coffers. They are better positioned than their neighbors to survive the downturn without it morphing into a social, political, or economic crisis. Oil-importing Arab states, on the other hand, face limited fiscal space and have been forced to walk back recent structural reform progress while limiting their fiscal response to the recession (Chart 15). Egypt is highly dependent on tourism and remittances from Arab petro-states. The recession has reversed the improvement in its fiscal situation following austerity measures imposed as part of the three year IMF program. Chart 14Fiscal Reforms Underway The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Chart 15More Stimulus Needed The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 That said, as long as nominal GDP outpaces interest on the debt, these countries will avoid a debt crisis. Although Egypt’s 10-year yield is 14.8%, its expected nominal GDP growth of 19.7% this year will ensure debt sustainability. By contrast, Tunisia is more at risk, as the yield on its 10-year government bond is near 10% yet nominal growth lags in the single digits. While policymakers across the region have implemented measures to ease burdens on households through various policies, Gulf Arab states have in some cases limited the benefits to nationals. For instance, the Qatari government announced on June 1 that it would reduce non-Qatari employee wage bills by 30%. While this protects the incomes of GCC nationals, it puts non-nationals at risk of income loss, raising the possibility that weakness among oil-producers will be transferred to non-oil producers. Chart 16Iran Teetering On Edge Iran Teetering On Edge Iran Teetering On Edge This is not to say that GCC nationals are completely immune to income or employment loss. In fact, the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals, which was already higher than the overall unemployment rate, jumped 2.5 pp in the second quarter to 15.5%. The Shia Crescent remains the most vulnerable neighborhood in the Middle East. Syria collapsed over the past decade, Lebanon is in the process of collapse, and Iran and Iraq are teetering (Chart 16). The IMF estimates that Iran needs oil prices at $521.2/bbl to balance its fiscal account! Weakness in Iran has spread across its sphere of influence — i.e. other predominantly Shia states and non-state actors who depend on Tehran for informal funding. Mass protests against poor economic conditions and corruption afflicted Iraq and Lebanon in the fall of 2019, forcing both governments to resign late last year. The political and economic situations have only deteriorated since. The August 4 blast at the Port of Beirut was the final straw for Lebanon which is now facing financial meltdown. Meanwhile, Iraq’s stability continues to be tested. The collapse in oil markets has weighed on government revenues as well as on the current account, which is projected to record a deficit worth 12.6% of GDP this year, following surpluses in the previous years. The good news is that the discovery of a COVID-19 vaccine points to a rebound in global economic activity over the coming 12 months. The bad news is that the virus is breaking out again and the distribution of the vaccine will take time. Eventually the combination of vaccines and additional monetary and fiscal stimulus in the developed world will alleviate some of the Middle East’s deepest strains, but it will be a rocky road. Social and political problems will escalate for some time even after the economy bottoms. Regarding the outlook for oil markets, BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategists see the confluence of steadily improving demand, a decline in US shale-oil production, and OPEC 2.0 production management pushing oil prices higher. They forecast Brent will average $63 per barrel next year, compared to $44 per barrel at current prices, and they make a good fundamental case for oil to average between $65 - $70 per barrel over the coming five years. The latest readings from global manufacturing PMIs send bullish signals, suggesting that Middle Eastern recovery is gradually underway (Chart 17). It is the near-term that is most treacherous. Chart 17Global Rebound Not A Moment Too Soon Global Rebound Not A Moment Too Soon Global Rebound Not A Moment Too Soon Chart 18New Lockdowns Pose Near-Term Risks The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 On the demand-side, COVID-19 cases globally are trending upward with several European countries imposing partial lockdowns (Chart 18). While the lockdowns are unlikely to be as severe as earlier this year, they threaten to delay the recovery in oil markets. In response, the OPEC 2.0 coalition of producers, which was planning to reduce production cuts to 5.7 mm barrel per day in January (leading to higher output) may instead extend the current 7.7 mm barrel per day cuts when it meets again in December 2020. This means petro-states will need to contend with low prices and revenues for longer, while oil importers see shortfalls in remittances. Aside from risks to the oil market, the resurgence in COVID-19 cases adds further uncertainty to the expected recovery in global growth through knock-on effects on activity. Even though not all Middle Eastern countries are experiencing the second wave of the disease, governments have generally tightened stringency measures recently (Chart 19). Chart 19COVID-19 Restrictions Vary By Country The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 Bottom Line: Middle Eastern economies have been hit hard by the double whammy of pandemic and oil price collapse. Policy responses have been measured to limit deviation from long-term goals. This is a positive for the long-term outlook. We expect improvements in the global economy and the recovery in oil markets over the coming 12 months to alleviate some of the pressure. However, risks are skewed to the downside and a protracted downturn could put to waste recent structural improvements. Countries that lie in the so-called “Shia Crescent” – Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon – are in dire need of resuscitation. Oil importers face the risk that the cyclical downturn unwinds recent economic improvements and uncovers structural vulnerabilities, weighing on the strategic outlook. Arab petro-states enjoy the most comfortable coffers. But even their economies are at risk, especially in the high-risk scenario in which oil markets do not recover anytime soon. Saudi Arabia and Oman are at a disadvantage versus Qatar in this sense given their outsized dependence on oil and higher fiscal breakeven oil price. Investment Implications Middle Eastern equity market capitalization is growing over time relative to the rest of the world (Chart 20). The region remains a reflation play, with a heavy sectoral focus on materials and financials as well as energy. Thus it stands to benefit over the long run as the global recovery gets underway. Chart 20Investors Gaining Interest In Mideast Over Time Investors Gaining Interest In Mideast Over Time Investors Gaining Interest In Mideast Over Time However, today is not an attractive entry point for the Middle East relative to other emerging markets. The rebalancing of oil markets, the current wave of COVID-19 before the vaccine rollout, and near-term geopolitical risks outlined above imply that the Middle East will face a period of heightened uncertainty and uninspiring equity performance. Protracted economic weakness will weigh on social stability. The oil-rich GCC is least vulnerable to popular unrest as it has the space to be generous to its citizens. But even these countries have had to cut some benefits. The pandemic will erode the social contract currently in place whereby monetary incentives are awarded to make up for the lack of political voice. The Shia Crescent is already in crisis as bouts of mass protests have been occurring in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon for the past year. And the pandemic has derailed the economic recovery of various states that had only recently gotten back on track after the Arab Spring. Another bout of economic weakness will push people back into the streets, threatening to topple governments again (Chart 21). Chart 21Unrest Will Rise Even After Economic Bottom The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 The Middle East After Trump And COVID-19 A good entry point into Middle Eastern equities will emerge once the global economy gets onto a better footing as the US and Iran will likely achieve a precarious balance. Geopolitics and the recession are forcing Arab states to adopt greater pragmatism in their economic and foreign policies. Reform policies are creating more diverse economies, as in the case of the UAE (Chart 22), which, unlike Saudi Arabia, is decoupling its equity performance from oil prices. Chart 22UAE About Financials, Saudi About Oil UAE About Financials, Saudi About Oil UAE About Financials, Saudi About Oil The risk to Israel, aside from politics, is that it is a tech-heavy bourse that could start to underperform neighbors like the UAE amid the likely global rotation into value stocks and cyclicals. Chart 23Israel Outperforms, But Beware Rotation To Value Israel Outperforms, But Beware Rotation To Value Israel Outperforms, But Beware Rotation To Value Israel has been outperforming the broad Middle East basket, including the UAE, and that trend looks to continue. But it does not look attractive relative to emerging markets as a whole. The risk to Israel, aside from politics, is that it is a tech-heavy bourse that could start to underperform neighbors like the UAE amid the likely global rotation into value stocks and cyclicals. Israel equity performance relative to Turkey closely tracks global growth versus value stocks (Chart 23). However, we do not recommend playing this specific pair trade. For that we would also need to see an improvement in Turkish governance. Turkey may benefit from global macro developments but its country risk will remain extreme. The recent change of central bank leadership temporarily improved Turkey’s relative performance but does not mark a fundamentally positive turning point in policy, according to BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan. President Recep Erdogan is unlikely to adopt orthodox monetary policy and austerity prior to the 2022 elections. The approach of the elections, and several simultaneous foreign adventures, will keep the Turkish political risk premium elevated. Therefore the UAE provides the better long end of a value play on the Middle East.     Roukaya Ibrahim Editor/Strategist Geopolitical Strategy RoukayaI@bcaresearch.com  

We are publishing the November issue of Charts That Matter. The key message from the charts on the following pages is that investor sentiment on global growth is elevated and the reflation trade is a bit overstretched. As a result, risk assets and commodities prices will likely correct, and the US dollar will rebound. Investors should keep dry powder to buy EM assets at a better entry point. A trigger for a selloff could be one or a combination of the following: the lack of a large US fiscal stimulus package, falling activity in Europe, peak stimulus in China or the recent jitter in the Chinese onshore corporate bond market. CHART OF THE WEEKThe Global Stock-To-Bond Ratio Is At A Critical Juncture The Global Stock-To-Bond Ratio Is At A Critical Juncture The Global Stock-To-Bond Ratio Is At A Critical Juncture US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated US equity sentiment is somewhat elevated and is consistent with a correction in share prices. Chart 1US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated Chart 2US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated US Equity Sentiment Is Elevated   Peak Growth Sentiment Investors are quite optimistic on global growth. A record large net long positions in copper corroborate a very bullish investor stance on China/EM growth. From a contrarian perspective, this heralds a correction in commodities prices and EM as well as a rebound in the US dollar. Chart 3Peak Growth Sentiment Peak Growth Sentiment Peak Growth Sentiment Chart 4Peak Growth Sentiment Peak Growth Sentiment Peak Growth Sentiment   Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Defensive sectors/markets have been underperforming and are oversold. Their outperformance is likely in the near term. Chart 5Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Chart 6Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments Defensive Versus Cyclical Equity Segments   Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices The Baltic Dry index is falling and iron ore prices have relapsed. This is consistent with diminishing Chinese imports of iron ore. However, iron ore inventories in China are not excessive, so odds are it is a correction and not a bear market in iron ore prices.  Chart 7Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Chart 8Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices   Chart 9Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Near-Term Risks To Industrial Metal Prices Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking  Starting April-May, Chinese imports of copper and other commodities was running at very high rates, exceeding any reasonable estimates of final demand. This suggests China has been accumulating commodities. Even as final demand continues recovering, China might diminish imports of commodities weighing on their prices in the near term. Chart 10Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking Chart 11Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking Chinese Imports Of Commodities Are At Risk From Destocking   Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Oil prices and energy stocks are facing a technical resistance. Yet, the share price of the world’s largest global commodity trader – Glencore – seems to be breaking out. The coming weeks will reveal which way the commodities complex will trade. Our bias is that a near-term correction is overdue. The US dollar holds the key, please refer to the next page. Chart 12Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Chart 13Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price Oil Prices, Energy Stocks And Glencore Share Price   Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound US inflation expectations – which have risen sharply since March – are likely to retreat as the US Senate does not approve a large fiscal stimulus package. Falling US inflation expectations will translate into higher TIPS yields. The latter and very bearish sentiment/positioning on the US dollar will trigger a rebound in the greenback. Chart 14Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Chart 15Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Chart 16Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound Rising US Real Rates (TIPS Yields) Will Lead To A US Dollar Rebound   US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? After the 2016 US elections, the US dollar rallied strongly for several weeks and then it sold off considerably. It seems the broad trade-weighted dollar is following a reverse pattern now.  It was selling off before the 2020 US elections and has continued weakening afterwards. If the reverse of the 2016 pattern persists, it means the US dollar is about make a major bottom and stage a playable rebound. Chart 17US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? Chart 18US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? Chart 19US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016? US Elections And The US Dollar: Is 2020 The Opposite Of 2016?   More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound The periods when US share prices outperform their global peers in local currency terms often coincide with strength in the US dollar. Recently, this relationship has broken down. The greenback might soon recouple to the upside, re-establishing this relationship (Chart 21). Besides, the broad trade-weighted dollar is very oversold (Chart 22). Chart 20More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound Chart 21More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound More Reasons To Expect A US Dollar Rebound   Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Rising US TIPS yields could create headwinds for growth stocks. FAANG and Tencent share prices have risen about 20-fold since January 2010 – as much as the Nasdaq 100 did in the 1990s before topping out. Chart 22Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Chart 23Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks Rising Real US Yields And Growth Stocks   Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads EM corporate and sovereign credit spreads are driven by EM exchange rates and commodities prices. A potential US dollar rebound and a correction in commodities prices warrant near-term caution on EM credit markets. Chart 24Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Chart 25Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Drivers Of EM Corporate And Sovereign Credit Spreads Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Various indicators and technical chart configurations send mixed signals. Our bias is to expect a correction in risk assets in the near term.  Chart 26Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Chart 27Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns   Chart 28Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Chart 29Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns Messages From Indicators And Chart Patterns   Peak Stimulus In China Fiscal stimulus is running out. In addition, the PBoC has been tightening liquidity in the interbank market and interest rates have risen. Banks’ loan approvals have rolled over. All these point to a peak in the credit and fiscal impulse as well as money impulses in Q4 2020. Does it mean China’s economy is about to decelerate? – refer to the next page. Chart 30Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China Chart 31Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China Chart 32Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China Peak Stimulus In China   China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue In H1 2021 Our credit and fiscal spending impulse points to a continuous expansion in the Chinese economy for now. If the credit and fiscal impulse rolls over in Q4 2020, as shown in the previous page, the business cycle in China will peak around middle of 2021 given the nine-month time lag between this impulse and economic data. Chart 33China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 Chart 35China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 Chart 34China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021 China: Business Cycle Expansion To Continue in H1 2021   Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market The recent defaults by several SOEs on their bond payments have led to a spike in corporate bond yields. However, there is no stable historical relationship between onshore corporate bond yields and the A-share market. Chart 36Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Chart 37Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market   Chart 38Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market Stress In The Chinese Onshore Corporate Bond Market China: Can Share Prices Rally Amid Rising Corporate Borrowing Costs? During periods of rising onshore corporate bond yields, the MSCI ex-TMT Investable equity index rallied if Chinese EPS expectations where improving. The latest rollover in EPS growth expectations amid rising corporate bond yields is a warning to share prices. Chart 39China: Can Share Prices Rally Amid Rising Corporate Borrowing Costs? China: Can Share Prices Rally Amid Rising Corporate Borrowing Costs? China: Can Share Prices Rally Amid Rising Corporate Borrowing Costs? Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks China’s outperformance versus global stocks has been due to its TMT stocks (Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan). In turn, excluding Chinese stocks, EM ex-China has not really outperformed the global equity index. Chart 40Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Chart 41Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Chinese And EM Equity Relative Performance Versus Global Stocks Various EM Equity Indexes Till very recent (before the announcement of progress in vaccines), EM small caps, the equal-weighted index, EM ex-TMT stocks and the EM index ex-China, Korea and Taiwan had been lackluster. Will the latest spike persist? It depends on the S&P500 and global risk asset performance. Chart 42Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Chart 43Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes   Chart 44Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Chart 45Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes Various EM Equity Indexes   Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia’s and overall EM relative performance versus global stocks is unlikely to break out now. We continue recommending a neutral allocation to EM equities in a global equity portfolio. Chart 46Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Chart 47Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks   Chart 48Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Chart 49Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks Emerging Asia And Overall EM Relative Equity Performance Versus Global Stocks   Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Mind The Cataract Mind The Cataract Since late summer we have published a number of reports arguing for a rotation out of expensive tech titan stocks and into beaten down late-cyclicals. Taking a closer look at the Nasdaq 100/S&P energy ratio is instructive. In just 7 trading days, the share price ratio has collapsed 20% from its November 6th high, once again highlighting the violent ongoing rotation within the US equity universe. Vaccine announcements were undoubtedly the catalyst that accentuated this rotation, but once the news of what appears to be peaking US COVID-19 cases hit the wire, this healthy rotation will likely reaccelerate (see chart). Bottom Line: We continue to recommend investors remain exposed to the economic reopening trade that news of effective vaccines has brought to the forefront.