Colombia
A Reality Shock For Colombian Policymakers…
Highlights Inflation will undershoot, prompting rate cuts by the central bank. The long end of Colombia’s local currency yield curve offers great value. Continue betting on lower 10-year swap rates. The currency is cheap but oil prices are at risk. Colombia's balance of payment is still very…
Overweight Colombian Bonds…
Colombia has been badly hit by two shocks: the precipitous fall in oil prices and the strict quarantine measures to constrain the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. An underwhelming fiscal stimulus in response to the lockdowns will further weigh on private demand. We have been recommending…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the global macro outlook and implications for EM during today’s…
Sell CLP/COP?
Sell CLP/COP…
Feature We closed our short position in EM equities last week but still maintain our short recommendation on EM currencies. Going forward we will be looking for signs of a durable bottom in risk assets. The clash between forthcoming massive economic stimulus around the world and the…
Highlights An analysis on Colombia is available below. If EM share prices hold at current levels, a major rally will likely unfold. If they are unable to hold, a substantial breakdown will likely ensue. The direction of EM US dollar and local currency bond yields will be the key to whether EM…
Chart II-1Oil Makes A Huge Difference To Colombia's Current Account
Oil Makes A Huge Difference To Colombia's Current Account…
Analyses on the Philippines, Colombia and Argentina are available below. Highlights Global growth conditions, especially outside the U.S., remain bond friendly. Nevertheless, U.S. bonds are overbought and technical factors might exert upward pressure on them in the near term. Our ubiquitous…