BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service reiterates its recommendation to receive 10-year swap rates and recommends investors to overweight local-currency Colombian sovereign bonds relative to the EM benchmark.…
Colombia has been badly hit by two shocks: the precipitous fall in oil prices and the strict quarantine measures to constrain the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. An underwhelming fiscal stimulus in response to the lockdowns will further…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the…
Based on the CRB indices, energy prices have fallen to an all-time low relative to industrial metals. Sure, oil demand has collapsed and storage is near full capacity, but the slope of the oil curve suggests that prices already…
Feature We closed our short position in EM equities last week but still maintain our short recommendation on EM currencies. Going forward we will be looking for signs of a durable bottom in risk assets. The clash between forthcoming…
Chart II-1Oil Makes A Huge Difference To Colombia's Current Account Today we recommend upgrading local currency bonds and booking profits on the short Colombian peso / long Russian ruble trade. The reason is tight fiscal and…
Highlights An analysis on Colombia is available below. If EM share prices hold at current levels, a major rally will likely unfold. If they are unable to hold, a substantial breakdown will likely ensue. The direction of EM US dollar…
Analyses on the Philippines, Colombia and Argentina are available below. Highlights Global growth conditions, especially outside the U.S., remain bond friendly. Nevertheless, U.S. bonds are overbought and technical factors might…
Falling oil prices and fiscal tightening will cause the Colombian economy to slow down in the next 12 months. What’s more, a depreciating peso and sticky inflation will prevent the central bank (Banrep) from frontloading rate cuts…
Highlights Please note that country sections on Mexico and Colombia published below. The policy stimulus in China could produce a growth revival in the second half of 2019, but there are no signs of an imminent bottom in China’s…