In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak.…

Special Report

In this report, we argue that the dollar will enter a volatile trading range, before a bear market begins in earnest. That said, fundamental forces are aligning for US dollar downside.

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…

Special Report

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The Euro And The Chinese Credit Impulse   The US dollar has bounced off its 50-day moving average. In the recent past, that had led to a period…

Special Report

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…

Listen to a short summary of this report.       Executive Summary Chinese Stocks Are Relatively Cheap  The Chinese economy faces a trifecta of economic woes: 1) The threat of renewed Covid lockdowns; 2)…

Special Report

Executive Summary The US Still Dominates Economic Output  While the Ukraine war has been positive for the greenback, there is a slow tectonic shift away from the dollar as China rethinks holding concentrated foreign currency…

Executive Summary A True Bond Bear Market, USD-Hedged Or Unhedged  The US dollar has appreciated in 2022, most notably against the euro and Japanese yen. The rally has been more muted against the currencies of major US…

Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds  Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…