After dropping 26% in the second half of last year, the front-month iron ore futures contract traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has been climbing higher this year. Weather-related disruptions to mine operations in Brazil,…
The RMB slid 2% last week in an aggressive selloff that abruptly pushed the currency to its weakest level since August. Multiple forces are behind this weakness. First, PBoC policy has diverged from its global peers. The…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Small Caps Are Looking Attractive Relative To Their Large Cap Peers Adverse supply shocks have pushed down global growth this year…
Executive Summary China’s Daily New COVID Cases And City Lockdowns, 2020 To Present The ongoing wave of local Omicron infections and city lockdowns pose the largest macro risk in China post Q1 2020. The current lockdowns in…
Chinese policymakers are facing a dilemma. COVID-19 cases are surging and restrictions amid the zero-tolerance policy towards the virus is weighing down on economic activity (see The Numbers). To boost the economy Beijing needs…
Chinese data releases were mixed on Monday. GDP growth accelerated from 4.0% y/y to 4.8% y/y in Q1, beating expectations of 4.2% y/y. Fixed assets investment growth slowed to 9.3% y/y in the first three months of the year from…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the drop in the first quarter FX reserves reflects losses in China’s official FX asset portfolio and increased capital outflows. Newly released data…
China’s trade surplus widened from USD 30.6 billion to USD 47.4 billion March, surprising expectations that it would narrow to USD 21.7 billion. Both export and import dynamics explain the wider surplus. On the export…