Chinese industrial profit growth contracted for the second consecutive month on a year-to-date year-on-year basis in August, falling 2.1% y/y in the first eight months of the year. The deterioration is broad-based across…
Executive Summary The Chinese Economy Is Facing Deflationary Pressures China’s economy is facing a deflationary threat. Core consumer price inflation is below 1%, and producer (ex-factory) price inflation has…
On the surface, Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investments appeared to improve in August. Industrial production rose by 4.2% y/y following 3.8% y/y in July, retail sales growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…
China’s aggregate financing in August tripled to a larger-than-expected CNY 2.43 tr, following a CNY 0.76 tr in July and beating expectations of CNY 2.08 tr. New bank loans doubled, reaching CNY 1.25 tr from CNY 0.68 tr,…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that the conditions do not seem to be met for a drastic change in Beijing’s dynamic zero-Covid strategy. China’s transition from zero tolerance to an…
Chinese imports and exports significantly missed expectations in August. Exports grew by 7.1% y/y in US dollar terms, down from 18.0% y/y and largely below the 13.0% y/y anticipated. Imports rose 0.3% y/y in August, down from…