Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
The fiscal stimulus announced at this year’s National People’s Congress is only slightly larger than last year’s. Notably, the details of the measures suggest that it will be challenging for fiscal stimulus to effectively…
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS…
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…
US January core new orders beat expectations, rising 0.8% m/m, an acceleration from 0.2% in December. This measure, which excludes defense and aircraft from capital goods, is used as a proxy for business investment. Core shipments…
US growth has slowed in recent weeks. This can be seen in the weaker data on retail sales, consumer confidence, services PMIs, and a swath of housing releases (notably starts, existing home sales, homebuilder confidence, and stock…
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in European Defense, Chinese Tech, and “Boring Stocks”.