China

We explain the underlying catalysts for the RMB’s seasonal appreciation, and assess the upside potential for the currency in 2026.

The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.