Central Europe

Analysis on Mexico and Central Europe is available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Highlights Deflationary pressures have been intensifying in Malaysia and the central bank will be forced to cut its policy rate. To play this theme, we recommend receiving 2-year swap rates. In Mexico, pieces…

Our macroeconomic theme for Central European (CE) economies – Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, elaborated in the linked report, has been as follows: Inflation will continue to rise as both labor shortages and ultra-accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policies in CE promote strong…

Analysis on central Europe and Pakistan is published below. Highlights There are several reasons why Chinese authorities will likely allow the yuan to depreciate 6-8% from current levels in the coming months. RMB depreciation will weigh not only on emerging Asian but also on other EM…

Continue Favoring Central Europe Within EM Equities: An overweight position in Central European (CE) equities within an EM equity portfolio is still warranted due to the following reasons: First, CE economies are the least exposed to a Chinese and global trade slowdown - the main causes of the…

Equities: An overweight position in Central European (CE) equities within an EM equity portfolio is still warranted due to the following reasons: First, CE economies are the least exposed to a Chinese and global trade slowdown - the main causes of the EM selloff. Even though these economies are…

Highlights In the Philippines, inflation is breaking out while the central bank is well behind the curve. Financials markets remain at risk. As a play on surging interest rates: Go short Philippine property stocks. We appraise and modify our investment strategy across all central European…

Our presiding macroeconomic theme for central Europe - which we first elaborated on in a Special Report titled, Central Europe: Beware Of An Inflation Outbreak1 - has been as follows: An accommodative policy stance in the context of strong growth and tight labor markets warrants higher inflation…

Our presiding macroeconomic theme for central Europe - which we first elaborated on in a Special Report titled, Central Europe: Beware Of An Inflation Outbreak2 - has been as follows: An accommodative policy stance in the context of strong growth and tight labor markets warrants higher inflation…

We published a Special Alert report titled Turkey: Book Profits On Shorts yesterday. The link is available on page 18. This report is Part 2 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of…

Highlights Stay tactically long the SEK. Our preferred expression is long SEK/GBP. Stay tactically short the NOK. Our preferred expression is long AUD/NOK. Take profits in the underweight to Poland... ...and open a tactical countertrend position: long Poland's Warsaw General Index, short…