In the recently held Polish general elections, the ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) lost power. Chances are that a coalition led by the Civic Platform party will form a government next month. The new coalition ran on a pro…
Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.
Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.
The Polish central bank delivered a larger-than-anticipated 75 basis point rate cut on Wednesday – slashing the policy rate to 6%, versus expectations of 6.5%. The aggressive move marks the first rate cut following a 11-…
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…
It’s time to go overweight Hungarian domestic bonds in an EM and European core bond portfolios. Currency investors should book profits on our long CZK / short HUF trade, which has generated 29.4% gains since its inception in June…
Executive Summary Poland: Wages Are Surging Hungary is exhibiting classic signs of an overheating economy –as rising inflation coincides with very strong domestic demand. Yet, authorities are still pursuing very…
Executive Summary Loss Of Russian Production Will Lift Brent With German imports of Russian oil close to 10% of its total requirements – following an impressive decline from 35% pre-invasion – we expect the EU to…
The Polish central bank (NBP) surprised markets yesterday with a 100bps rate hike to 4.5%, following a 75bps rate hike last month. The central bank rate hikes come after strong headline and core inflation prints in recent months…
Executive Summary Polish Central Bank Is Behind Inflation Curve; Czech One is Getting Ahead Curve Amid the current geopolitical crisis, Poland is more vulnerable than other Central European countries due to its extensive…