Highlights The dollar is likely to churn on recent weakness before a cyclical bear market fully unfolds. The reason is that the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, both politically and economically. We continue to…
Highlights We are upgrading Pakistani equities to overweight within an EM equity portfolio. Fixed-income investors should consider purchasing 5-year local currency government bonds. The balance-of-payments adjustment is probably over…
Feature Chart I-1Lebanese Bond Yields Have Surged To Precarious Levels In a May 2018 Special Report, we warned that a devaluation and government default were only a matter of time in Lebanon. The country's sovereign US…
Highlights An expansion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will increase dollar liquidity. This should be negative for the greenback, barring a recession over the next six to 12 months. Interest rate differentials have…
Highlights It remains too early to put on fresh pro-cyclical trades, but the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is a positive development at the margin. As the market fights a tug of war between weak fundamentals and easier monetary…
Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical…
Highlights China’s old economy is set to decelerate in the first half of 2019, regardless of the recent tariff ceasefire. Our base case view is that growth will modestly firm in the second half of 2019, but timing the trough will…