Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
Commodity currencies have been rather resilient, despite the broad rise in the dollar this year. In our view, we are about to experience a big rotation in commodity currency market performance at the crosses, from NZD, to CAD and…
A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…
Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term China’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell in the first three months of 2022. The reduction was the largest quarterly fall…