Canada

In this <i>Special Report</i>, we present a detailed discussion on the outlook for Australian credit markets. Our conclusion is that investors should begin increasing exposure to Australian spread product.

The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.

A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.

This <i>Special Report</i> reviews all of our active recommendations, including our over/underweight country and asset allocation positions, as well as our current tactical trades.

The euro stopped weakening in March 2015, which coincided with the ECB starting its asset purchases. Since then, the ECB's incremental policies have been unable to push the euro lower. The price action speaks to the resilience of the currency and indicates that a lot of bad news has been discounted.

Over the coming two weeks, the G3 central banks will be holding key policy meetings that could prove instrumental in setting major FX trends for the next several months. What can currency traders expect?

Inflation expectations in the Developed Markets have been adjusting down to the lower trend of actual inflation, although the bulk of this adjustment now appears complete.

For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity overweight, EM and Canada also received some allocation. The U.S. and New Zealand were slightly downgraded. In the fixed-income space, the model is sticking with Italy and Spain.

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its fair value is rising on the back of a positive terms-of-trade shock. The yuan is fairly valued. Most commodity currencies are not yet cheap.

The recovery in global risk assets and currencies is a temporary oversold bounce. It is not supported by signs that global growth is on the mend. Consequently, we are not willing to embrace more risk in our currency strategy just yet.