Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Special Report Highlights The positive correlation between share prices and US bond yields – that has been in place since 1997 – is likely to turn negative. Looking ahead, stock prices will fall when US bond yields rise and will rally…
Special Report Highlights The positive correlation between share prices and US bond yields – that has been in place since 1997 – is likely to turn negative. Looking ahead, stock prices will fall when US bond yields rise and will rally…
Highlights The post-2008 boom in stocks, corporate bonds, and real estate is a ‘rational bubble’, because the relationship between risk-asset valuations and falling bond yields is exponential. But the ‘rational…
Highlights There is too much euphoria and complacency in global markets. The main distinction between the current and previous episodes of speculative equity market excesses is that classic end-of-business cycle conditions –…
Highlights An uninterrupted advance in reflation trades will be possible if the FOMO (fear of missing out) evolves into a full-blown mania. This scenario cannot be ruled out especially with retail investors around the world continuing…
Recommended Allocation  Chart 1Only Internet Stocks Have Kept On Rising  It has been a very strange bull market. Although global equities are up 52% since their bottom on March 23rd, the rally has been limited largely to…
Special Report Highlights President Trump is making a comeback in our quantitative election model. An upgrade from our 35% odds of a Trump win is on the horizon, pending a fiscal relief bill.  The Fed’s pursuit of “maximum…
Highlights ‘Value’ sector profits are in terminal decline. Bank profits are in terminal decline, because private sector credit is now ‘maxed out’, and the intermediation between borrowers and savers can be done…
Special Report Highlights Historically, soft-budget constraints have typically been followed by periods of poor equity market performance. Soft-budget constraints could produce two distinct economic scenarios: malinvestment or inflation. Both are…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. Instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will explore the risks posed to commercial real estate and the banking…